Prediction: Theodor Berggren VS Manuel Del Valle 2025-06-27
The Ultimate MMA Showdown: Theodor Berggren vs. Manuel Del Valle
By The Handicapper with a Six-Pack of Confidence
The Setup:
Two warriors, one cage, and a crowd of statisticians clutching their calculators like lifelines. Theodor Berggren (19-5, 11 finishes) and Manuel Del Valle (15-2, 12 finishes) meet on June 27, 2025, in a clash of brawlers. The odds? Del Valle at -161 (62.1% implied) and Berggren at +225 (44.4% implied). But let’s not let the numbers bore us—let’s dive into the chaos.
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The Stats That Make You Question Your Life Choices:
- Del Valle is a finish machine: 12 of his 15 wins ended via TKO/KO or submission. His 15-fight winning streak? A testament to his ability to survive the opening round and then turn up the heat.
- Berggren is the “old soul” of the division: 19 pro fights, 11 finishes, and a 19-5 record. His 11 finishes in 19 fights? That’s a 58% finish rate—if you can call it a “rate” when you’re 19-5.
- Injuries? None reported. Both fighters are healthy, which is either a blessing or a curse depending on whether you’re betting on a 15-minute war or a nap.
The Underdog’s Secret Weapon:
MMA underdogs win 35% of the time. Berggren’s +225 odds imply a 44.4% chance to win, but the underdog rate suggests he’s actually a 35% shot. That’s a 9.4% gap in favor of Del Valle—a gap big enough to drive a truck through (or at least a very aggressive takedown).
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The EV Calculus (Because You’re Paying for This):
1. Del Valle’s Implied Probability: 62.1%
2. Berggren’s Implied Probability: 44.4%
3. Total Implied Probability: 106.5% (thanks, vig)
4. Adjusted for Underdog Rate:
- Berggren’s “true” chance = 35% (underdog rate)
- Del Valle’s “true” chance = 65% (100% - 35%)
5. EV for Del Valle:
- (65% * 0.61) - (35% * 1) = +4.65%
- Translation: Bet Del Valle and feel like a genius.
The Verdict:
While Berggren’s +225 odds scream “Hey, I’m here to make you money!,” Del Valle’s 65% true win rate and +4.65% EV make him the smarter play. Berggren’s 19-fight record is impressive, but Del Valle’s 15-2 ledger and 12 finishes in 15 wins? That’s the kind of efficiency that makes bookmakers weep into their spreadsheets.
Final Pick:
Manuel Del Valle (-161) to continue his winning streak and remind the world that sometimes, the favorite isn’t just there for show.
Bonus Prediction:
If Berggren does win, it’ll be by a last-second TKO—because drama is the only thing more predictable than MMA.
Expected Value Summary:
- Del Valle: +4.65%
- Berggren: -21.25%
Bet Del Valle and sleep easy. The underdog rate won’t save you here.
Created: June 26, 2025, 12:24 p.m. GMT