Prediction: Tom Aspinall VS Jon Jones 2025-08-31
Jon Jones vs. Tom Aspinall: A "Biggest Fight in History" That Feels Like a Corporate PR Disaster
By The MMA Oracle (aka Your Uncle Who Still Thinks Royce Gracie is the GOAT)
The Setup
Jon Jones, the UFC’s most decorated (and controversial) heavyweight champion, has spent the last 27 months hoarding the belt like a dragon guarding a gold hoard. His lone defense? A November 2023 TKO over Stipe Miocic that felt more like a retirement party than a title fight. Meanwhile, Tom Aspinall, the interim champ who earned his stripes by dismantling Sergei Pavlovich, has been left twiddling his thumbs, waiting for a unification bout that Jones now calls “wild” to even discuss.
Jones’ recent podcast rant—where he claimed he “could not really care less” about fighting Aspinall—has fans questioning whether he’s still a fighter or just a brand extension. Meanwhile, Aspinall, the British brawler with a 12-2 record and a penchant for explosive finishes, is probably texting his agent: “Can I get a raise for being this motivated?”
The Numbers Game
- Jon Jones: 23-2-0 (UFC title since March 2023), last fight: TKO over Miocic (Nov 2023).
- Tom Aspinall: 12-2-0 (Interim title since Nov 2023), last fight: TKO over Pavlovich (Nov 2023).
- Odds:
- Jon Jones: +113 (2.13)
- Tom Aspinall: -175 (1.75)
Implied Probabilities:
- Jones: 47% (1/2.13)
- Aspinall: 57% (1/1.75)
Underdog Win Rate in MMA: 35%.
The "Science" of Expected Value
Let’s split the difference between the bookmakers’ implied probabilities and the historical underdog rate (35%).
- Jones’ Adjusted Probability: 47% (bookmakers) vs. 35% (historical underdog rate).
- Split: 41% (Jones’ actual value).
- Aspinall’s Adjusted Probability: 57% (bookmakers) vs. 65% (historical favorite rate).
- Split: 61% (Aspinall’s actual value).
Expected Value (EV) Calculation:
- Jones: (41% * $1.13 profit) - (59% * $1 loss) = -$0.16.
- Aspinall: (61% * $0.75 profit) - (39% * $1 loss) = +$0.11.
Verdict: Aspinall is the smarter bet. The bookmakers are undervaluing the favorite (Aspinall) and overvaluing the underdog (Jones), who’s currently playing “I’m not here” with his career.
Key Factors
1. Jones’ Motivation: He’s been dodging this fight like a fan at a UFC merch table. His “I’m focused on family and my brand” line is less inspiring than a 10-minute highlight reel of his career.
2. Aspinall’s Hunger: The interim champ has waited 10 months for this. He’s got nothing to lose and everything to prove.
3. Injuries/Updates: No major injuries reported. Jones’ “mental health” and “brand-building” are his only liabilities.
The Oracle’s Prediction
Best Bet: Tom Aspinall (-175).
- Why: The EV favors Aspinall, and history shows favorites win 65% of the time in MMA. Jones’ disinterest is a red flag; Aspinall’s aggression is a green light.
- Method: Aspinall’s power (34% takedown defense, 4.15 strikes per minute) will overwhelm Jones’ technical skills if the champ isn’t 100% mentally.
Dark Horse: If Jones suddenly becomes “excited” and turns in a career-defining performance, he’ll win by decision. But that’s as likely as Dana White admitting Dana White is wrong.
Final Thought
This fight is less about who’s better and more about who’s trying. Aspinall is the only one showing up with a game plan. Jones is showing up with a press release. Bet accordingly—and maybe send the champ a motivational poster.
“The only thing bigger than Jon Jones’ ego is his chance of losing this fight.” — MMA Oracle, 2025.
Created: June 20, 2025, 2:15 p.m. GMT