Prediction: Toronto Argonauts VS Montreal Alouettes 2025-07-17
Toronto Argonauts vs. Montreal Alouettes: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Scooter Wrecking Crew)
Parsing the Odds: When Math Meets Mayhem
The numbers don’t lie, and they’re currently wearing a Montreal Alouettes jersey. The Alouettes are massive favorites at decimal odds of 1.21–1.24 (implying an 80–82% chance to win), while the Toronto Argonauts are sitting at 4.1–4.7 (a 19–22% chance to pull off a miracle). That spread? A full -9.5 points in Montreal’s favor. If this were a Netflix series, the Argonauts would be the “struggling underdog” character who forgets their lines and trips over the cue card table.
Digesting the News: Injuries, Scooters, and the Curse of the 1-4 Start
Toronto’s injury report reads like a tragic opera. Star offensive lineman Ryan Hunter, the CFL’s Most Outstanding Offensive Lineman, is out 6–8 weeks after being hit by a car while riding a scooter. Let that sink in: He’s a three-time All-CFL guard who couldn’t avoid a vehicle but somehow dodged the draft’s injury lottery for years. Meanwhile, starter Chad Kelly (2023’s Most Outstanding Player) is sidelined with a leg injury, leaving Nick Arbuckle to keep the offense afloat. Arbuckle’s thrown for 1,449 yards and seven TDs—impressive, until you realize it’s just 28% of Kelly’s career output.
Montreal, meanwhile, is rolling. Backup QB McLeod Bethel-Thompson—a Grey Cup winner and the CFL’s version of a “Plan B” superhero—is set to start. His resume includes outplaying Hamilton’s defense, which is allowing the 2nd-most points and yards this season. Oh, and wideout Tyson Philpot? He’s a scoring machine against the Tiger-Cats, which is lucky because Toronto’s defense might as well be a open-bar invitation for opponents.
Humorous Spin: Traffic Fines and Flying Squirrels
Toronto’s offense is currently held together by duct tape, hope, and Ryan Hunter’s scooter insurance claim. Without their Pro Bowl O-Lineman, their offensive line is like a canoe in a hurricane—functional in theory, catastrophic in practice. And let’s not forget Kelly’s absence: Without him, the Argos’ passing game is a VHS tape in a DVD world.
Montreal, meanwhile, is the cool kid in the CFL classroom. Bethel-Thompson isn’t just a QB; he’s a veteran QB, which in CFL terms means someone who’s played long enough to remember when the league’s TV contract wasn’t a punchline. The Alouettes’ offense? It’s a well-oiled machine, and Hamilton’s defense is the squeaky wheel they’re all too happy to crush.
Prediction: Alouettes Soar, Argonauts Sink (But Not into the St. Lawrence River)
Putting it all together: Montreal’s stacked offense, led by Bethel-Thompson and Philpot, should dismantle Toronto’s porous defense. The Argonauts’ injuries? They’ve turned their roster into a “Where’s Waldo?” game where “Waldo” is “any functional offensive lineman.”
Final Verdict: Bet on the Alouettes to win comfortably, ideally with a postgame celebration involving a scooter for Hunter (rental included). Toronto’s implied probability of winning is lower than my chance of winning a staring contest with a raccoon. Unless Arbuckle channels his inner Kelly (and quickly), this one’s a bird in the hand for Montreal.
Pick: Montreal Alouettes -9.5. Over 50.5 points. Profit. 🦉
Created: July 16, 2025, 4:10 a.m. GMT