Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays VS Chicago White Sox 2025-07-07
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago White Sox: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Lot of Sarcasm)
By The Handicapper with a Snarky Pencil
The Setup
The Toronto Blue Jays (-174) roll into Chicago to face the Chicago White Sox (+145) in a matchup that’s less of a contest and more of a “watch the underdog get steamrolled” special. Toronto’s 52-38 record and 61.1% win rate when favored scream “we’re here to play baseball, not feel your pain,” while Chicago’s 30-60 ledger and .222 team batting average whisper “we’re here to collect unemployment checks.”
Key Stats & Context
- Blue Jays: 93 home runs (17th in MLB), 4.23 ERA, and a lineup that includes Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (career .300+ BA), George Springer (50+ HR threat), and Bo Bichette (young, fast, and angry).
- White Sox: 29th in slugging (.346), 27th in runs scored (3.4/g), and a pitching staff that looks like it was drafted from a cereal box. Sean Burke, the starter, has an ERA that makes a middle-schooler blush.
Injuries & Updates
No major injuries reported. If there were, this game would be a medical thriller. As it stands, the White Sox’s biggest injury is their dignity.
Odds Breakdown
- Blue Jays (-174): Implied probability of 63.5%. Their actual win rate when favored is 61.1% (22-14), so they’re slightly underperforming their implied odds.
- White Sox (+145): Implied probability of 40.8%. Historical underdog win rate in MLB is 41%, so they’re almost perfectly priced. But Chicago’s 27.5% win rate as underdogs by +145 or more? That’s a 27.5% chance of pulling off a miracle.
Expected Value (EV) Calculations
- Blue Jays:
- Implied probability: 63.5%
- Actual performance: 61.1%
- EV = (0.611 * (1 - 0.635)) / 0.635 ≈ 35.1%
- White Sox:
- Implied probability: 40.8%
- Historical underdog win rate: 41%
- EV = (0.275 * (1 - 0.408)) / 0.408 ≈ 39.9%
The Verdict
While the White Sox technically have a slightly higher EV (39.9% vs. 35.1%), the Blue Jays are the safer bet. Why? Because the EV for the underdog is only marginally better, and the Blue Jays’ 61.1% actual win rate when favored is almost in line with their implied odds. Meanwhile, the White Sox’s 27.5% win rate as +145 underdogs is laughably low.
Best Bet: Toronto Blue Jays (-174)
Take the Blue Jays. They’re the better team, the better story, and the better value. The White Sox will probably score 2 runs and lose 5-2. It’s not a thriller, but it’s what baseball is for.
Bonus Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (-110)
Toronto’s offense (53.4% over rate) and Chicago’s pitching (41.6% over rate) suggest a high-scoring game. Bet the over if you want to spice things up.
Final Thought
If you’re feeling very brave, take the White Sox +1.5 (-200) for a spread play. But only if you enjoy watching your money burn.
“The odds are just math. The game is just life. And the White Sox? They’re just a cautionary tale.”
Created: July 7, 2025, 2:23 a.m. GMT