Prediction: Troy Trojans VS Old Dominion Monarchs 2025-11-13

Troy Trojans vs. Old Dominion Monarchs: A Clash of Snails and Elephants (With Fewer Touchdowns)

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a gridiron showdown that’s like a chess match played on a trampoline—if the trampoline occasionally collapsed under the weight of poor offensive execution. The Troy Trojans (6-3) travel to Norfolk to face the Old Dominion Monarchs (6-3) in a Sun Belt clash that’s as statistically convoluted as a tax audit. Let’s unpack this with the precision of a spreadsheet and the humor of a deflated balloon animal.

Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Offenses
Old Dominion is a 10.5-point favorite, which, in betting terms, implies they’re expected to win by nearly a touchdown and a half. (Imagine showing up to a party with only half a keg—this is that level of disappointment for Troy.) The implied probability of Old Dominion winning? A stout 81%, per their -425 moneyline odds. Troy’s +325 line gives them a 24% chance—about the same odds as me correctly spelling “defensively” without looking it up.

The over/under is 52.5 points, but the SportsLine Projection Model thinks this game will be as dull as a sandbaggers’ convention, predicting just 51 points total (clearing the under in over 50% of simulations). Why? Both teams’ offenses are about as spicy as lukewarm oatmeal.

Troy’s offense: 20th-worst in total yards (324.2 per game) and 111th in rushing (121.1 yards). Their QB, Tucker Kilcrease, threw for zero touchdowns in their last game—and picked up an interception. If Troy’s offense were a toaster, it’d be the one that only pops up crumbs.
- Old Dominion’s offense: Led by QB Colton Joseph, who’s more dangerous with his legs (3 TDs last week) than his arm (zero TD passes recently). Their rushing game, though, is a beast: 201.6 yards per game. Think of them as a SUV that’s been retrofitted to look like a Smart Car—looks zippy, but it’s still going to plow through you.

Digesting the News: Injuries, Home-Cooked Meals, and Running Backs
Troy’s recent loss to Arkansas State was a masterclass in offensive ineptitude. QB Kilcrease threw for 166 yards, zero touchdowns, and one pick—and their rushing game managed a paltry 121.1 yards per game. It’s like ordering a five-course meal and getting a single crouton with a side of regret.

Old Dominion, meanwhile, is riding high after a 31-6 dismantling of UL Monroe. Their star RB, Trequan Jones, churned out 528 yards and four touchdowns on just 68 carries—if “churned” is code for “ran over everyone like a particularly aggressive tumbleweed.” QB Colton Joseph added three rushing TDs, proving that sometimes, you don’t need a passing game when your legs are your primary weapon.

Defensively, Old Dominion is a sieve against the run (107th in rush defense) but a fortress against the pass (34th). Troy’s offense, however, is so bad at passing that they might as well hand the ball to a blindfolded toddler and call it a day.

The Humorous Spin: Why This Game Feels Like a Spreadsheet Error
Let’s be real: Troy’s offense is the reason spreads exist. They’re so bad at moving the ball that their “game plan” might as well be “pat the ball around until the clock runs out.” If their receivers were any slower, they’d need their own time zone.

Old Dominion’s defense? They’re like a leaky colander—if that colander occasionally caught a few drops of water. They’ll let Troy’s running backs gain yards, but Joseph and Co. will make up for it with their legs. It’s a game of “give a little, take a lot,” and ODU’s got the math down.

As for the over/under, 52.5 points sounds like a lot until you realize Troy’s offense would probably take that many points and say, “Thanks, but no thanks—I’d rather eat my own helmet.” The model’s prediction of 51 points feels spot-on, like a tired parent guessing how many times they’ll hear “I’m bored” during a road trip.

Prediction: The Underdog’s Underdog Story
While Old Dominion’s 81% implied probability makes them the statistical favorite, the Under 52.5 points is the smarter bet here. Both teams’ offenses are so pedestrian that even a perfect game plan would struggle to clear 53 points. Troy’s offense is a broken compass, and ODU’s passing game isn’t exactly lighting the world on fire.

Final Score Prediction: Old Dominion 27, Troy 17.

Bet: Old Dominion -10.5 (for the spread) and Under 52.5 (for the total).

Why? Because if Troy’s offense continues to play like a team that’s forgotten how to pass, and Old Dominion’s defense continues to let everyone run through them like a poorly secured Wi-Fi network, this game will be as high-scoring as a Little League softball game. Take the under, grab a blanket, and prepare for a nap you won’t regret.

And remember: If you bet on Troy, may your faith be as misplaced as a quarterback’s confidence after a fourth-quarter interception. 🏈

Created: Nov. 13, 2025, 6:04 p.m. GMT

Pikkit - Sports Betting Tracker, Odds, Insights & Analysis.