Prediction: Tulane Green Wave VS UTSA Roadrunners 2025-10-30
Tulane Green Wave vs. UTSA Roadrunners: A Clash of AAC Ambitions
Where Tulane’s Precision Meets UTSA’s… Well, Let’s Just Say They’re Still Finding Their Gears
Parsing the Odds: A Tale of Two Defenses
Tulane (-210 ML, -5.5 spread) enters as the clear favorite, and the numbers back it up. The Green Wave’s defense allows a mere 161.6 rushing yards per game (94th in FBS)—a virtual fortress against ground attacks. Meanwhile, UTSA’s pass defense is about as effective as a sieve at a soup kitchen, ranking outside the top 100 in pass defense DVOA. Tulane’s QB, Jake Retzlaff, is a dual-threat menace with 1,428 passing yards and 450 rushing yards, making him the Swiss Army knife of the AAC.
UTSA (+170 ML, +5.5 spread) isn’t without hope. Their offense averages 32 points per game, led by Owen McCown’s 13 touchdowns. But here’s the rub: UTSA’s defense has allowed 30.9 points per game—the 25th-worst in FBS. Last week’s 55-17 drubbing at North Texas, where they surrendered 584 total yards, feels like a harbinger. Tulane’s implied probability to win? A robust 68.9% (per -210 odds). UTSA’s? A meager 35.7%. Math says Tulane wins. Common sense says Tulane wins. Even your Uncle Jerry, who still thinks the “Alamodome” is a type of cheese, says Tulane wins.
Digesting the News: Injuries, Home-Cooked Disasters, and QB Shenanigans
Tulane’s lone blemish? A 24-17 win over Army. Wait—that’s their only loss? No, that’s a win. Tulane’s only actual loss this season was a 24-17 defeat to Ole Miss in September. Which, honestly, is like losing to a heavyweight champion if football had weight classes. Ole Miss is the Muhammad Ali of the SEC—bully, brash, and still clinging to relevance.
UTSA’s woes are more… colorful. They’ve got a 12-1 home record at the Alamodome since 2023, but let’s not forget their road performance: a 55-17 loss to North Texas where they allowed 584 yards. Their defense looks like a group of accountants trying to block a tank. And McCown? He’s throwing for 13 TDs, but 4 interceptions—because even in San Antonio, the football seems to have a vendetta against completion.
Humorous Spin: When Sieves Meet Swiss Army Knives
Imagine UTSA’s defense as a colander. A colander that’s been kicked, cursed, and left in the rain. Tulane’s offense? A Michelin-starred chef with a fondue set and a death wish. The Green Wave’s passing game, once a shaky side dish, has morphed into a five-course meal. Retzlaff’s legs? The “appetizer” that keeps the main course from getting bored.
As for UTSA’s home-field advantage? The Alamodome is a “fortress,” sure—but it’s also where the ghosts of 2023 haunt them. Remember when they beat Tulane 45-28 last season? That game feels like a distant memory, like trying to recall why you microwaved a sock.
Prediction: Tulane -5.5, Over 54.5
Tulane’s 17-6 ATS road record in their last 23 games isn’t a coincidence—it’s a math problem. UTSA’s porous defense and Tulane’s balanced attack set up for a high-scoring affair. Bet the Over (54.5) because these teams combined for 78 points in their last meeting, and history has a way of repeating itself—especially when one team’s defense is a work in progress.
Final Verdict:
Tulane 34, UTSA 24. The Green Wave’s discipline, Retzlaff’s dual-threat magic, and UTSA’s defensive “enthusiasm” (read: inability to stop anything) make this a lopsided affair. Unless UTSA’s offense suddenly develops the precision of a drunken dart-throwing toddler, Tulane rolls. And if you’re betting on UTSA? May the odds be ever in your favor.
Game on Thursday, October 30, 7:30 PM ET. Stream it, but not your last hope for dignity.
Created: Oct. 30, 2025, 1:15 p.m. GMT