Prediction: Wagner Seahawks VS Manhattan Jaspers 2025-11-26

Wagner Seahawks (0-5) vs. Manhattan Jaspers (3-3): A Statistical Circus with a Side of Three-Pointers

Ladies and gentlemen, gather ‘round for the most statistically glaring mismatch of the season: the Wagner Seahawks, fresh off a 92-75 loss to Georgetown, traveling to Riverdale to face the Manhattan Jaspers. Let’s break this down with the precision of a coach’s whiteboard and the humor of a player tripping over their own shoelaces during a layup.

Parsing the Odds: Why Manhattan’s Implied Probability is Basically a Math Class
The Jaspers are favored by 3.5-4.5 points, with decimal odds hovering around 1.48-1.53 (implied probability: 67-69%). For context, Wagner’s odds of 2.6-2.7 (implied probability: 37-38%) suggest bookmakers think the Seahawks have roughly the same chance of winning as a team that’s lost five straight road games. And Wagner has lost five straight road games.

The over/under is 144.5-145.5, which feels optimistic given Manhattan’s defense (they allow 86 PPG) and Wagner’s offense (68.2 PPG). But here’s the twist: Manhattan’s opponents shoot 46.4% from the field, while Wagner’s defense allows 44.1%. The Seahawks’ porous D might keep this game closer than the odds suggest—unless Manhattan’s “defense” is just a group of players pretending to care about the ball.

News Digest: Injuries, Home-Court Advantage, and a Questionable Scoring Differential
- Manhattan Jaspers:
- Their -25 scoring differential (81.8 PPG vs. 86 allowed) is about as impressive as a baker’s differential between cake and regret.
- Key players: Terrance Jones (2.2 made 3s/game) and Devin Dinkins (13.2 PPG on 36.2% shooting). Fun fact: Dinkins’ shooting percentage is better than most people’s chances of finding a parking spot in Manhattan.
- Recent loss to Texas A&M (109-68) was so lopsided, the Jaspers probably still hear the echo of those 41 points in the third quarter.

Wagner Seahawks:
- Their -56 differential (68.2 PPG vs. 79.4 allowed) is the basketball equivalent of a toaster in a bakery—present but useless.
- Eduardo Placer (11.3 PPG, 45.8% from three) is their offensive spark, but even he can’t outshoot a team that allows opponents to shoot 47.1%.
- Wagner’s road record is 0-2 in games decided by 3 points or fewer. Translation: They’re the sports version of “almost had it, but no.”

The Humor: Three-Pointers, Home-Court Hex, and a Jaspers’ Defense That’s “Unique”
Manhattan’s home court, Draddy Gymnasium, is a fortress where the Jaspers are 1-0 this season. It’s so intimidating, even the opposing team’s water bottles sweat nervously. Wagner, meanwhile, is 0-5 on the road, which is about as effective as a screen in a pick-and-roll if the screener is distracted by their shoelaces.

Speaking of three-pointers: Manhattan makes 8.3 per game (158th nationally), while Wagner makes 8.8 (120th). But here’s the rub: Manhattan’s opponents shoot 47.1%, while Wagner’s opponents shoot 44.1%. The Seahawks’ defense is like a sieve that also charges rent.

And let’s not forget the Jaspers’ -25 scoring differential. That’s the kind of number that makes you wonder if they accidentally play in a wind tunnel where the ball always curves into their basket.

Prediction: The Jaspers Win, but Not Without Drama
Manhattan’s 46.4% field goal percentage vs. Wagner’s 41.9% defensive FG% gives the Jaspers a clear edge. Their home-court advantage and Wagner’s road woes (0-5, including a 56-point differential) make this a near-foregone conclusion. But here’s the kicker: Wagner’s 39.3% three-point shooting (25th nationally) could spark a rally. If Manhattan’s defense continues to play like a team that’s “just here for the experience,” the over/under might flirt with the Over 144.5 line.

Final Verdict: Bet on Manhattan -3.5 to cover, but keep an eye on the three-point contest between Placer and Jones. And if Wagner somehow pulls off the upset? Consider checking your TV—maybe it’s set to the UNC Wilmington women’s game instead.

“The Jaspers are favored, but in basketball, anything can happen… like a team finally remembering how to score in Manhattan.” 🏀

Created: Nov. 26, 2025, 5:45 p.m. GMT

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