Prediction: Washington Mystics VS Las Vegas Aces 2025-06-26
WNBA Showdown: Washington Mystics vs. Las Vegas Aces
June 26, 2025 | 7:00 PM PT | Michelob ULTRA Arena
The Setup:
The Las Vegas Aces (7-7) are the WNBA’s version of a well-oiled tank, while the Washington Mystics (record undisclosed but clearly not 7-7) are the team that forgot how to charge their battery. The Aces, fresh off a 26-point dismantling of the Connecticut Sun (2-13), are favored by 8.5 points. The Sun’s net rating of -20.3 is so bad it could power a Tesla, but the Mystics? Let’s just say they’re not exactly the Celtics.
Key Numbers:
- Aces’ Last Game: 85-59 win over the Sun. Four players in double digits. A’ja Wilson hit 5,000 career points, becoming the WNBA’s version of a “young prodigy” (translation: she’s 25).
- Mystics’ Struggles: No recent stats provided, but if they’re the underdog here, they’re probably not the team that’s been winning.
- Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline: Aces at -1000 (DraftKings), Mystics at +800.
- Spread: Aces -8.5 (-110), Mystics +8.5 (-110).
- Total: 161.5 (Over/Under -110).
Injury Report:
- Aces: No major injuries. A’ja Wilson is healthy and averaging 9.8 rebounds, making her a “lock” to clear prop bets (unless the line is 10.1).
- Mystics: No updates, but if they’re the underdog, they’re likely missing their version of “Marina Mabrey” (if they even have one).
The Math:
- Implied Probability (Moneyline): Aces at 80%, Mystics at 24.4%.
- Underdog Win Rate (WNBA): 41%.
- EV Calculation:
- Aces’ implied win probability (80%) vs. historical underdog rate (41%) suggests the spread is undervalued.
- Spread EV: Aces -8.5 has a 50% implied probability (due to -110 pricing). If the Aces are more likely to win by >8.5 points, this is a solid play.
- Total EV: The Over is priced at 50%, but the Aces’ recent game had a total of 144. The 161.5 line smells like a “trap” set by bookmakers who forgot how bad the Mystics are.
The Verdict:
Best Bet: Under 161.5 (-110)
Why? The Aces’ defense is a fortress (-20.3 net rating on the Sun). Even if the Mystics score a few more points than the Sun, the Aces’ efficiency and the Sun’s recent performance suggest the Over is a statistical mirage. The Under is a 41% underdog win rate play with a 50% EV edge.
Honorable Mention: Aces -8.5 (-110)
If you’re feeling spicy, the Aces’ 8.5-point spread is a “split the difference” play. Their 80% implied win rate vs. the 41% underdog rate gives them a 39% edge. But unless you’re a masochist, stick with the Under.
Final Thought:
This game is less of a matchup and more of a “come see A’ja Wilson do yoga while the Mystics nap.” The Aces will win, likely by double digits, and the total will be a number that makes you question why the Sun even showed up. Take the Under and enjoy the clinic.
Expected Value Breakdown:
- Under 161.5: 50% implied probability vs. 41% historical underdog rate = +9% EV.
- Aces -8.5: 50% implied probability vs. 80% implied win rate = +30% EV (but higher risk).
Final Pick: Under 161.5 (-110).
Created: June 26, 2025, 12:22 p.m. GMT