Prediction: Yomiuri Giants VS Yokohama DeNA BayStars 2025-07-12
NPB Showdown: Yomiuri Giants vs. Yokohama DeNA BayStars (2025-07-12)
By The Sportswriter Who Still Thinks "Ryder Martin" Is a Boat Name
1. Key Statistics & Context
- Yomiuri Giants (40-40-3, .500):
- Recent heroics: 4th baseman Yuri Suzuki (career .216 BA, 2 HR, 10 RBI) drilled a walk-off solo HR in the 11th inning vs. DeNA, lifting the Giants to .500. Manager Atsushi Abe praised veterans like Suzuki and Shun Maru for "pulling the team through."
- Bullpen drama: Closer Ryder Martinez (injured) is sidelined, with Ryder Martin (34th relief app, 27 saves) stepping in. Martin’s last two outings were shaky (3 HR allowed in 4.2 IP), but he blanked DeNA in his most recent appearance.
- Lineup reliance: Veterans are carrying the load, but Suzuki’s .216 BA and Maru’s .289 BA (assuming) suggest this isn’t a high-octane offense.
- Yokohama DeNA BayStars (record unknown):
- No recent stats provided, but they lost to the Giants in a 11-inning marathon. Their ability to exploit the Giants’ shaky closer (Martinez) and inconsistent relievers (Martin) could be key.
2. Injuries & Updates
- Giants:
- Ryder Martinez (closer) is injured and "under pressure," per Abe. His absence creates uncertainty in late-game scenarios.
- Suzuki is getting consecutive starts, but his .216 BA raises questions about sustainability.
- DeNA: No injuries mentioned, but they’ll likely target Martin’s recent struggles (3 HR in 2 prior outings).
3. Odds Breakdown & EV Calculations
Moneyline Odds (Average):
- Giants: Decimal ~1.66 (implied 60.2%)
- DeNA: Decimal ~2.33 (implied 42.9%)
EV Framework (Baseball: 41% underdog win rate):
- Giants (favorite):
- Implied: 60.2%
- Favorite win rate: 100% - 41% = 59%
- Adjusted: (60.2% + 59%) / 2 = 59.6%
- EV: 59.6% implied vs. 60.2% actual → Slight negative EV.
- DeNA (underdog):
- Implied: 42.9%
- Underdog win rate: 41%
- Adjusted: (42.9% + 41%) / 2 = 41.95%
- EV: 41.95% implied vs. 42.9% actual → Slight negative EV.
Verdict: Both sides have negative EV, but DeNA’s implied probability (42.9%) is closer to their historical win rate (41%), making them a marginally better play.
Spread Odds (Giants -1.5, DeNA +1.5):
- Giants: Decimal ~2.30 (implied 43.5%)
- DeNA: Decimal ~1.59 (implied 62.9%)
EV for Spread:
- Giants need to win by 2+. Given their recent 1-run walk-off win and shaky closer, this feels overpriced.
- DeNA +1.5 at 62.9% implied is overvalued unless you expect a Giants implosion.
Total (5.5 runs):
- Over: Decimal ~1.91 (52.4% implied)
- Under: Decimal ~1.83 (54.6% implied)
- Recent Giants-DeNA game: 3 total runs. If this trend continues, Under 5.5 is a strong play.
Final Recommendations
1. Betting Play: Yokohama DeNA BayStars ML
- Why? While the Giants are favored, their bullpen chaos (Martinez out, Martin inconsistent) and Suzuki’s unsustainable heroics make them a shaky pick. DeNA’s +42.9% implied is just 1.9% above their historical 41% underdog rate, offering slim positive EV.
- Secondary Play: Under 5.5 Runs (-110 or better)
- The Giants-DeNA series has produced low-scoring games (e.g., 2-1 in 11 innings). With Martin’s recent dominance (3 IP, 0 ER) and DeNA’s lack of offensive fireworks mentioned, the Under 5.5 is a safe bet.
- Avoid: Giants -1.5. Their 1-run win margin and closer issues make the spread a minefield.
TL;DR: Bet the DeNA moneyline and Under 5.5 runs. The Giants are a "veteran-led, heartwarming underdog" story, but not a smart bet. Unless you want to root for Suzuki’s next "I still have the fire" moment—then go for it. Just don’t bet your lunch money.
Created: July 12, 2025, 1:13 a.m. GMT