Prediction: Yuniel Dorticos VS Gilberto Ramirez 2025-06-28
Gilberto Ramirez vs. Yuniel Dorticos: A Tale of Two Titans (With a Side of Age and Inactivity)
The Setup:
Gilberto “Zurdo” Ramirez (-1400 to -1100) enters the ring as the consensus favorite, a man who’s built his legacy on consistency, volume punching, and a 47-1 record with 30 stoppages. Yuniel “Dr. KO” Dorticos (+600 to +8.5) is the aging, power-punching underdog, a 39-year-old with a 93% knockout rate but a year-long layoff and a gas tank that’s shown signs of leakage.
The Numbers Game:
- Ramirez: 47-1 (30 KOs), 33-year-old with a 32.5% KO rate (league average: ~35%). His last loss? A 2022 decision to Dmitry Bivol—since then, he’s added titles at two weights and improved his defense.
- Dorticos: 27-2 (25 KOs), 93% KO rate (top 5 all-time), but 39 years old and inactive since 2023. His last fight? A 2022 TKO over David Morrell, where he looked sharp early but faded in the later rounds.
Key X-Factors:
1. Age and Activity: Dorticos’ 39 years and 12-month hiatus are red flags. Ramirez, 33, has fought 4 times in 2024 alone—stamina and rhythm matter in 12-round wars.
2. Style Matchup: Ramirez’ lateral movement and pressure could neutralize Dorticos’ power. Dorticos thrives against punchers who stand and trade; Ramirez’ 10.5” reach and 29.3 punches per round (per CompuBox) suggest he’ll keep the action at arm’s length.
3. History of Fading: Dorticos’ 25 KOs include 24 in the first 8 rounds. Ramirez, meanwhile, has 12 stoppages in rounds 9-12—his ability to outlast is a nightmare for the fading Cuban.
Odds and EV Calculus:
- Ramirez’s Implied Probability: 93.46% (at +1100) to 90.91% (at +1400).
- Dorticos’ Implied Probability: 11.76% (at +8.5) to 13.04% (at +600).
- Underdog Win Rate (Estimate): Boxing isn’t listed, but MMA (35%) and NFL (35%) are comparable. If we split the difference between Dorticos’ implied 11.76% and the 35% underdog rate, his “true” win chance is ~23.38%.
EV Breakdown:
- Ramirez:
- Implied: 93.46% vs. “True” ~76.62% (assuming 23.38% for Dorticos).
- EV = (76.62% * $100) - (23.38% * $100) = +$53.24.
- Dorticos:
- Implied: 11.76% vs. “True” 23.38%.
- EV = (23.38% * $600) - (76.62% * $100) = +$63.68.
Wait, What?
Hold up—Dorticos’ EV looks better? Only if you believe his 23.38% chance is accurate. But here’s the rub: Ramirez’s recent fights (e.g., 2024 win over Luis Ortiz) show he’s peaking at the right time. Dorticos’ 2022 fight against Morrell saw him fade in the 10th, and his 12-month layoff raises questions about ring rust. Adjust Dorticos’ “true” win chance down to 18%, and Ramirez’s EV jumps to +$67.84, while Dorticos’ plummets to -$29.54.
The Verdict:
Ramirez is the +EV play. The market is undervaluing his ability to outlast Dorticos and overvaluing the Cuban’s power. Ramirez’s 30% stoppage rate (vs. Dorticos’ 25%) and superior activity make a decision victory likely.
Best Bet: Gilberto Ramirez to win by decision (-1400 to -1100).
Why? Because Dorticos’ “KO or bust” strategy is a recipe for disaster against a fighter who’ll outwork him. Ramirez isn’t flashy, but he’s the kind of boxer who makes you look like a fool for doubting him.
Final Thought:
If Dorticos wins, it’ll be a “Where were you?” moment for the boxing world. Ramirez, meanwhile, will be cashing checks and wondering why anyone thought this was close.
“The only thing older than Dorticos is his fight strategy.” — Your friendly neighborhood sportswriter, who’s already dreaming of that $100 profit on a $10 bet.
Created: June 29, 2025, 1:08 a.m. GMT