Prop Bets: Alanyaspor VS Samsunspor 2025-12-01

Samsunspor vs. Alanyaspor: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Betting Slip)
December 1, 2025 — Samsun Yeni 19 Mayıs Stadium

The Setup:
Samsunspor, the 4th-place home squad with a 7-game unbeaten streak at home (5 wins, 4 draws), hosts Alanyaspor, the 10th-place road warriors who’ve lost 4 of their last 5 away games. Alanyaspor’s injury report reads like a Who’s Who of absences: Ntcham, Coulibaly, Sousa, Satka, and the suspended Celil Yüksel (under investigation for betting, because nothing says “fun” like a midweek scandal). Samsunspor, meanwhile, leans on Cherif Ndiaye (4 goals) and Carlo Holse (4 goals), while Alanyaspor’s Ui-Jo Hwang, Ianis Hagi, and Uchenna Ogundu each have 2 league goals.

The Odds (Implied Probabilities):
- Samsunspor to win: 54.6% (best odds: +183 at FanDuel → 1 / 2.83 ≈ 35.3% implied).
- Draw: 29.4% (best odds: +340 at FanDuel → 1 / 4.4 ≈ 22.7% implied).
- Alanyaspor to win: 21.7% (best odds: +410 at FanDuel → 1 / 5.1 ≈ 19.6% implied).

Wait, what? The math doesn’t add up because bookmakers charge vigorish, but let’s pretend we’re all geniuses who can exploit this “discrepancy.”

Key Stats to Know:
- Samsunspor concedes just 0.6 goals per home game. Alanyaspor’s defense? They’ve shipped 14 goals in 13 games.
- The last 5 Samsunspor home games? All Under 2.5 goals. The last 3 head-to-heads? Also Under 2.5. If you’re betting on “fewer than 3 goals,” you’re basically just betting on basic math.
- Samsunspor averages 6.8 corners at home. If you’re into that, their “Over 4.5 corners” line (-125) is a 57% implied probability.

Player Props (From Context):
- Cherif Ndiaye (Samsunspor) Over 0.5 Goals: A 4-goal man in 13 games. At +125, he’s basically a 58% chance to do… literally anything but score.
- Ianis Hagi (Alanyaspor) Assists: With 2 league assists, his “Over 0.5 Assists” line (+150) is a 40% implied shot at making you feel nostalgic for the 2010s.

The Verdict:
Samsunspor’s home dominance and Alanyaspor’s injury crisis scream for a defensive stalemate. Back the Under 2.5 Goals (1.95 average odds → ~51.3% implied) or take Samsunspor (-0.5) at +180 (1 / 2.8 → 35.7% implied). If you’re feeling spicy, fade the visitors and take the Samsunspor Money Line at +183.

Final Score Prediction: Samsunspor 1, Alanyaspor 0 — because even with a 45-day ban, Celil Yüksel can’t outmaneuver a good set piece.

Note: This prediction is not financial advice. If you bet on the Draw at +340, you’re either a genius or a glutton for punishment. We can’t tell which. 🎲⚽

Created: Dec. 1, 2025, 9:07 a.m. GMT