Prop Bets: Alex de Minaur VS Felix Auger-Aliassime 2025-09-03

Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Alex de Minaur: A Tale of Two "Demons" (One Is Just a Nickname)

The US Open quarterfinals have served up a classic underdog-vs.-establishment showdown: Felix Auger-Aliassime (+120) vs. Alex de Minaur (-150). Let’s break this down with the precision of a tennis serve and the humor of a player who’s just realized they’re wearing two different socks.

The Stats That Won’t Let You Sleep
- De Minaur, the “demon” (seriously, Google it), is a career top-10 machine with 10 ATP titles and a résumé that includes reaching the quarterfinals of every Grand Slam. He’s also 6’0”, 152 lbs of Australian speed and defensive wizardry.
- Auger-Aliassime, the Canadian underdog, just handed Andrey Rublev a 7-6, 6-3, 6-4 beatdown, winning 3 of 4 matches in straight sets. He also holds a 2-1 edge in their head-to-head, including a childhood victory over de Minaur in Drummondville. Childhood. How’s that for a “I remember when you were my snack” edge?

The Odds: A Math Class You Didn’t Sign Up For
- De Minaur (-150) is the favorite, implying a 60% chance to reach the semis. That’s the confidence of someone who’s seen your Netflix history and still thinks they’re better.
- Auger-Aliassime (+120) offers a 45.45% implied probability. For context, that’s slightly less likely than your Aunt Karen winning a bet on the Super Bowl being decided by a sudden-death penalty kick.

Spreads & Totals: Because Tennis Needs More Numbers
- The spread favors de Minaur -2.5 sets (odds: ~1.91) at most books. Auger-Aliassime +2.5 sets (odds: ~1.83) is for those who enjoy betting on underdogs and/or have a death wish.
- Totals are split: Over 38.5 games (1.83) vs. Under 38.5 (1.91). Given Auger-Aliassime’s recent 5-set thriller against Rublev (which featured 39 games), the Over might be the safer bet unless de Minaur decides to play like a “meh” version of himself.

The Verdict: Upset or “Upset”?
While de Minaur’s resume gleams like a freshly waxed tennis ball, Auger-Aliassime’s recent form and hard-court mastery (2-0 vs. de Minaur on it) make this a pick’em in disguise. The Canadian’s 3-0 straight-set streak? That’s the kind of momentum that turns “demon” nicknames into exorcism requests.

Final Prediction: Auger-Aliassime pulls off the upset at +120, sending de Minaur’s “quarterfinals every year” streak into the abyss. And if he does? Tell the “demon” his nickname just got very 2002.

Bet responsibly, or don’t—this spread is steep enough to give Fibonacci a headache. 🎾

Created: Sept. 3, 2025, 4:15 a.m. GMT