Prop Bets: Alex de Minaur VS Leandro Riedi 2025-09-01
"Alex de Minaur vs. Leandro Riedi: The 8th Seed vs. the 435th—Or, How to Bet on a Tennis Match Where the Underdog’s Odds Are Basically a Free Win"
The US Open’s latest undercard features a mismatch so lopsided, even the tennis gods are chuckling. Alex de Minaur (No. 8 ATP), a man who’s reached the quarterfinals in 8 of his last 9 majors (joining elite company like Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic—yes, really), faces Leandro Riedi (ATP 435), a player who’s never beaten a top-10 player and is here on a technicality. The odds? De Minaur is a comical -94.3% favorite (decimal odds: 1.06, per Fanatics), while Riedi’s +900 line (10.0 decimal) basically lets you bet on a snowstorm in Miami.
Key Stats & Why This Is a No-Brainer
- De Minaur’s consistency: He’s a Grand Slam regular, having advanced to the last 8 in 8/9 majors since 2022. Riedi? He’s 6-1 this tournament, but his next win would be… statistically impossible against this opponent.
- Odds breakdown:
- Moneyline: De Minaur at 1.06 (implied 94.3% chance to win), Riedi at 10.0 (5.7% implied).
- Spreads: De Minaur -7.5 games (1.8–1.95 odds), Riedi +7.5 (1.8–1.82).
- Totals: Over/Under 32.5 games (1.75–1.95 odds). With de Minaur’s aggressive baseline game, bet the Under unless you fancy a marathon.
Player Props to Mock
- Riedi’s service games held: Bet on “0” (it’s not a prop, but it should be).
- De Minaur’s aces: He averages 9 per match this tournament. Riedi? He’s more likely to double-fault into retirement.
Prediction
This isn’t a match—it’s a math problem. De Minaur’s -7.5 spread is the only prop with a prayer of value, assuming Riedi serves like a robot programmed to self-destruct. The Swiss underdog will likely go down fighting, but fighting isn’t really the plan when your opponent’s ranked 427 spots above you.
Final Score Prediction: De Minaur wins 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 (because even the US Open’s mercy rule needs three sets to kill the drama).
Place your bets on de Minaur. Then go buy a lottery ticket. At least the lottery’s odds aren’t this laughable. 🎲🎾
Created: Aug. 31, 2025, 7:41 a.m. GMT