Prop Bets: Alex de Minaur VS Shintaro Mochizuki 2025-08-28
Humorous Prediction: Alex de Minaur vs. Shintaro Mochizuki
ATP US Open 2025, August 28
The Setup:
Alex de Minaur (38-15 season record, 8th seed) vs. Shintaro Mochizuki (37-21, underdog with odds so laughable they make a gambler question reality).
The Stats:
- De Minaur: 4-1 record in 2025, including a straight-sets romp over O’Connell. A certified “top-8 seed” (read: not a scrub).
- Mochizuki: 4-1 in his last five matches, including a straight-sets win over Gaston. A player so under the radar, even the bookmakers gave him +15.0 odds on DraftKings.
The Odds (Because Why Not?):
- Moneyline:
- Alex de Minaur: 1.02 (basically a free snack at the concession stand).
- Shintaro Mochizuki: 15.0 (if you bet $10, you’ll win $150… if the moon eclipses the sun and Mochizuki suddenly learns how to play with his other hand).
- Spread:
- De Minaur -9.5 games (2.0 odds).
- Mochizuki +9.5 games (1.77–1.8).
- Total Games: 28.5 (Over/Under: 1.8–1.91).
The Player Prop Bet (Per Yardbarker):
- Mochizuki +9.5 games line: The author of the “we expect him to keep this match close” school of thought thinks this is a value bet at 1.73. Translation: “Hey, let’s pretend this underdog can hang with a top-8 seed and get paid if we’re wrong.”
The Prediction (With Sarcasm):
Alex de Minaur will likely win this match, as expected. Probably in straight sets. Maybe even while texting his agent for a raise mid-match. Shintaro Mochizuki, meanwhile, will either:
1. Miraculously cover the 9.5-game spread (unlikely, unless de Minaur decides to take a 10-minute bathroom break between points), or
2. Gracefully accept his role as the “funny underdog” and serve into the net three times for comedic effect.
Why Bet on Mochizuki?
If you must chase longshots, the +9.5 spread at 1.77 is your only shot at relevance tonight. But honestly? De Minaur’s implied probability of winning is 93.4% (based on his 1.02 moneyline odds). Even the most optimistic Mochizuki fan should stick to betting on their grandma’s bingo night.
Final Verdict:
Alex de Minaur -9.5 to cover. The spread is a math problem; Mochizuki is the remainder.
Note: If you bet on Mochizuki and win, please send 50% of your profits to a therapist to heal the emotional trauma. 🎾💸
Created: Aug. 28, 2025, 5:28 p.m. GMT