Prop Bets: Arizona Diamondbacks VS Detroit Tigers 2025-07-30
Diamondbacks vs. Tigers: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Leak in Detroit
The Arizona Diamondbacks (+118 to +120) are here to play spoiler, while the Detroit Tigers (-120 to -125) are here to… well, hope their starting pitching doesn’t crumble like a house of cards in a monsoon. Let’s break it down with the precision of a radar gun and the humor of a broken water cooler.
Why the Diamondbacks Might Win
Brandon Pfaadt, the Diamondbacks’ enigmatic ace, has been a revelation lately, allowing just 4 runs over 21⅓ innings. That’s the kind of consistency that makes you forget he was once the guy who gave up a home run to a guy named “Mister XYZ” in a minor league game. Meanwhile, Tigers’ starter Casey Mize has been… subpar. Two straight losses, 10 runs in seven innings? Sounds like a Tuesday for Mize, but a potential disaster for Detroit. The Diamondbacks’ offense, ranked in the MLB’s top five in OPS and runs scored, could capitalize on Mize’s struggles like a kid in a candy store (if the candy were baseballs).
Why the Tigers Might Win
Detroit’s home-field advantage? Sure. And their fans’ optimism? Unshakable. But let’s be real: Casey Mize needs to stop looking like a guy who just discovered the “pitch count” feature on his phone. If Riley Greene (who’s been hot lately) can dominate Pfaadt like he’s done to righties’s all season, the Tigers might pull this off. But given Mize’s recent ERA (let’s just say it’s “above replacement”), this feels like betting on a leaky faucet to stop dripping.
Implied Probabilities
- Diamondbacks Moneyline: ~46.5% (per +120 odds)
- Tigers Moneyline: ~55.6% (per -125 odds)
- Total: 9 runs (Over/Under at 1.83–1.98, depending on the bookie).
Player Props to Consider
1. Corbin Carroll, Arizona – Hits Over 1.5 (-120)
The Diamondbacks’ leadoff man is a hitting machine. At -120 (implied 57.1% chance), this feels like free money if you trust his .320 AVG.
- Eugenio Suárez, Detroit – RBI Over 1.5 (-145)
Suárez is a RBI factory, and with Mize on the mound? Bet he drives in at least one run. The -145 line reflects confidence, but his recent slugging makes this a low-risk play.
- Riley Greene, Detroit – Home Runs Over 0.5 (+240)
Greene’s been a homer-hunting missile against righties’s. At +240, it’s a long shot, but if you’re feeling lucky (or greedy), this could pay off.
Final Verdict
The Diamondbacks are the smarter play here. Pfaadt’s recent dominance and Detroit’s pitching woes make this a classic “trust the hot hand” scenario. Plus, who doesn’t love underdogs with a top-5 offense?
Prediction: Arizona Diamondbacks win 5-3, with Corbin Carroll going 2-for-4 and Eugenio Suárez driving in a run. The Tigers’ bullpen will thank you later… for not trusting them.
Bet responsibly, and remember: the only thing more unpredictable than MLB is your ex on a Tuesday. 🎲⚾
Created: July 30, 2025, 5:29 a.m. GMT