Prop Bets: Atlanta Dream VS Phoenix Mercury 2025-07-23
"Phoenix Mercury: The Dream Team’s Nightmare on 7/24 (But Let’s Bet on the Props Anyway)"
The Phoenix Mercury (-130) are favored to stomp the Atlanta Dream (+3.5) like a Stepford Wife’s stilettos on a rogue cookie dough. Why? Because the Dream have the consistency of a toddler’s nap schedule (2-3 in their last five), while the Mercury have won 76.19% of their games—mathematically more than the Dream’s 27.78%. Plus, Phoenix’s Allisha Gray (18.4 PPG) and Alyssa Thomas (15.2 PPG) are so reliable, even your grandma could predict they’ll go OVER their prop points (16.5 and 14.5, respectively).
Key Numbers to Know:
- Moneyline: Phoenix (-130) vs. Atlanta (+3.5). Implied win probability? Mercury at 56.5%, Dream at 22.2% (because math hates Atlanta).
- Spread: Mercury -7.5 (-8.5 at some books). Dream +7.5/+8.5. Bet the spread if you enjoy watching the underdog get steamrolled.
- Total: 163.5-164.5 points. Over/Under? Probably Over, since Gray and Thomas alone could hit 30+ combined points.
Player Props to Snag:
1. Allisha Gray O/U 16.5 Points: Over (-110). She’s averaging 18.4 PPG—enough to outscore this game’s total if she plays solo.
2. Alyssa Thomas O/U 14.5 Points: Over (100). She’s a 15.2 PPG machine with a side of triple-doubles (625-to-1 shot, but still a safe bet).
3. Alyssa Thomas Double-Double: Yes (-110). She’s basically a WNBA Nikola Jokic.
4. First Basket: Bet Brionna Jones (+220) or Brittney Griner (+450). Let’s be real—this game’s opening tip will be a post-fest, not a three.
Why It’s a Joke: Atlanta’s missing Rhyne Howard (knee), and their road record (5-6) is worse than your dating app profile. Phoenix’s home-court edge? They’re 76% winners, while Atlanta’s 28%? That’s a 48% gap—enough to drive a truck (and a bettor’s bankroll) through.
Final Verdict: Lay the points on Phoenix and fade Atlanta. But if you must bet the under, at least take the Dream +8.5 and root for a comeback that’ll make you feel all the feels (and lose all your money).
Bonus Prop Pick: Bet Alyssa Thomas O/U 9.5 Assists (-105). She’s a playmaking wizard, and at -105, it’s basically free money.
Created: July 23, 2025, 3:58 p.m. GMT