Prop Bets: Atlanta Falcons VS New York Jets 2025-11-30

Falcons vs. Jets: A Turkey Day Thriller Where the Birds Fly Higher (But Probably Don’t Score Enough to Cover 39.5)

The Atlanta Falcons (-3, implied 60% win chance per -150 odds) host the New York Jets (+2.5, +950 moneyline = 9.5% implied probability) in a Week 13 clash that’s as underwhelming as a Thanksgiving appetizer. The over/under is 39.5 points—a number that makes the Falcons’ season average (45.5 P/G) wince but the Jets’ (43.3 P/G) shrug. Per SportsLine, Atlanta wins 60% of simulations, covers 57%, and the Over hits 68%. Take that, turkey comas!

Why the Falcons Should Win (But Might Not):
- They’re 4-2 ATS on the road, which is better than their 0-4 record in the Hunger Games.
- The Jets are 1-5 at home, proving that even MetLife Stadium can’t make New York football less magical.
- Drake London’s injury opens the door for Darnell Mooney (-118 to hit >19.5 air yards) to flex his “healthy” legs. Mooney has a 20+ reception in four games—because nothing says “I’m not injured” like catching a 20-yarder in a 23-17 dud.

Why the Jets Might Shock You (But Probably Won’t):
- They’re 7-2 ATS when playing as 2.5-point underdogs, which is statistically equivalent to a casino letting you win once before stealing your chips.
- Nick Folk (-105 to make >1.5 FGs) is a field goal machine in a game where the Falcons rank 9th in red zone defense. Folk’s got a 52% TD conversion rate to work with—because nothing says “I’m not a playoff contender” like kicking field goals.

Prop Bets to Roast:
- Kyle Pitts (+250 anytime TD): The Jets have allowed 7 TDs to TEs this season—second-most in the NFL. Pitts, who’s had a career worse than a Thanksgiving turkey (0 TDs in 3 tries), is a “strong value” pick. Let’s hope he’s not too busy crying over Drake London’s absence to score.
- Mooney’s 19.5-yard reception Over (-118): With the Jets’ top CB in Indianapolis, Mooney’s got a 50/50 shot to break the mold. At -118, it’s like betting on your Aunt Karen to finally finish her green bean casserole.

Final Verdict:
Take the Falcons (-3) and the Over (39.5) unless you enjoy watching the Jets’ 2-9 record and 1-5 home ATS line squander a 6-5 ATS cover streak. And if you’re betting on Pitts or Mooney, may the gambling gods forgive your optimism.

Remember: This game kicks off the night before Thanksgiving. If the Falcons lose, at least you’ll have a reason to blame the TV instead of your in-laws. 🦃🏈

Created: Nov. 30, 2025, 5:41 a.m. GMT