Prop Bets: Atlanta Falcons VS San Francisco 49ers 2025-10-19

"49ers to Stomp Falcons, McCaffrey to Shine, and Why You Should Bet on Bijan to Embarrass the 49ers’ Defense"

The San Francisco 49ers (-1.5, implied probability ~52.4%) are favored to stomp the Atlanta Falcons in Week 7, but let’s be real: this game might as well be a coronation for the 49ers, who are dealing with enough injuries to stock a medical supply store. The Falcons (3-2) will try to pull off an upset, but their best hope is probably Bijan Robinson accidentally setting the 49ers’ defense on fire with his 151.2 yards per game rushing.

Key Stats & Props to Watch:
- Christian McCaffrey (49ers): Over 45.5 receiving yards is a lock. The man has 444 receiving yards already this season—on pace to break the NFL record for a running back. Bet the over like you’re buying lottery tickets but actually confident.
- Bijan Robinson (Falcons): Over 35.5 receiving yards is a slam dunk. The 49ers’ defense is a sieve (24th in dropback EPA), and Robinson’s got 67.6 receiving yards per game. If he gets 40 yards, the Falcons’ offense can probably just… pat themselves on the back.
- Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons): Over 219.5 passing yards is a math problem. The 49ers’ secondary is so leaky they could drain a swamp. Penix has thrown four TDs already—just don’t expect him to throw for 400 yards. Or do? The 49ers’ defense is so bad, even a blindfolded quarterback might break a few records here.

Spread & Total:
- The 49ers are -1.5 favorites, but with Nick Bosa out for the season and the Falcons’ defense allowing just 253.4 total yards per game, this line feels like the sportsbooks are betting on the 49ers to win by exactly 1.5 points.
- The total is 47.5, and the under is favored. The Falcons’ defense is elite, and the 49ers’ offense? Well, they’re the 49ers. Let’s just say if this game goes over, the universe will probably implode.

Why the Falcons Might Win:
- Mac Jones starts for the 49ers (again), and somehow, he’s still not Brock Purdy.
- Bijan Robinson decides to single-handedly carry Atlanta on his back, like a modern-day Paul Hornung.
- The 49ers’ run defense finally collapses under the weight of its own incompetence.

Final Prediction:
The 49ers win 24-17, McCaffrey eclipses 50 receiving yards, and Bijan Robinson makes the 49ers’ defense look like a group of kindergarteners playing tackle football. Bet the under (47.5) because nothing in this matchup screams “high-scoring thriller” louder than a Falcons-49ers matchup in 2025.

Disclaimer: This prediction is 60% statistical analysis, 30% sarcasm, and 10% sheer panic about how bad the 49ers’ defense is. 🏈

Created: Oct. 19, 2025, 12:22 p.m. GMT