Prop Bets: Atlanta Falcons VS Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025-12-11

Falcons vs. Buccaneers: A Thursday Night Dull-a-thon (Predicted)
The Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are set to clash in a Thursday Night Football snoozer that’s less “Monday Night Mayhem” and more “Tuesday Afternoon Nap Time.” Let’s break it down with the precision of a spreadsheet and the humor of a broken VCR.

The Spread: Buccaneers -4.5 (-110 to -115, depending on your bookie)
Tampa Bay is favored by 4.5 points across the board, with odds hovering around -110 to -115. Converting that to implied probability? The Bucs need a 52-53% chance to win outright, which feels about right. After all, the Falcons are missing Michael Penix Jr. (out) and Drake London (out), while the Bucs have Bucky Irving back from injury. It’s like sending a toaster to fight a blender—it’s not pretty, but the blender (Bucs) has a slight edge.

Total: 44.5 (Under is the clear crowd-pleaser)
The Over/Under sits at 44.5, with the Under priced as low as -115 (BetMGM) and as high as -187 (FanDuel). Why? Both teams are nursing wounded egos and rosters. The Falcons’ offense is a ghost town, and the Bucs’ passing game? Baker Mayfield has failed to hit 217.5 yards in five of six games. Meanwhile, Tampa’s defense ranks 12th in EPA/Pass allowed, and Atlanta’s 10th in opponent passing yards. This is the NFL’s version of a “no score” hockey game. Bet the Under.

Player Props: The Good, the Bad, and the Bucky
1. Bucky Irving (-137) Over 16.5 Rush Attempts
Irving has averaged 14 carries per game since returning, but with Mike Evans questionable and Tampa’s pass-heavy tendencies, expect the Bucs to lean on their RB. The line is 16.5 at BetMGM, and Irving’s floor is solid. He’s had at least 14 carries in every game—he’s not exactly a “boom or bust” prop.

2. Baker Mayfield (-200) Under 217.5 Passing Yards
Mayfield’s last six games: 189, 192, 178, 201, 185, 199. That’s a 6-0 trend under 217.5. Facing Atlanta’s 10th-ranked pass defense? He’s likely to throw like a guy who just discovered the “mute” button.

Bijan Robinson (-150) Under 75.5 Rushing Yards
Atlanta’s RB is facing Tampa’s run defense, which allows a paltry 4.2 yards per carry. Robinson’s 75.5-yard line feels like a stretch—this is the NFL, not a high school track meet.

Final Prediction: Buccaneers 17, Falcons 13
The Bucs win by a field goal, and the combined score (34) leaves the Under 44.5 line in the dust. Bucky Irving gets 17 carries, Baker Mayfield throws for 190 yards, and Bijan Robinson gets tackled like he’s in a tackle box.

Injuries, anyone? The Falcons’ offense is a broken toaster (no bread, no heat), and the Bucs’ passing game is a deflated balloon. This game is the sports equivalent of watching paint dry—but at least the props are solid.

Place your bets, but don’t blame me when the Bucs punt on 4th-and-42. 🏈

Created: Dec. 11, 2025, 2:35 p.m. GMT