Prop Bets: Baltimore Orioles VS Tampa Bay Rays 2025-07-20
Orioles vs. Rays: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Few Over/Unders)
The Baltimore Orioles, fresh off a four-game losing streak that could double as a mini-vacation for their offense, will face the Tampa Bay Rays in a July 20 clash that’s less a game and more of a math problem. The Rays, favored at -124, are the 7th-ranked offensive machine, while the Orioles, 24th in runs scored, might as well be playing baseball with mittens on.
The Pitching Matchup:
- Trevor Rogers (Orioles): The lefty has a 4.70 ERA this season, which is about what fans’ patience has dropped to after watching this team.
- Ryan Pepiot (Rays): The righty comes in with a 3.85 ERA, which is “elite” in the context of this game.
Why the Rays Will Win:
1. Offense Overload: The Rays average 4.7 runs/game, while the Orioles? Let’s just say their offense is like a broken sprinkler—spreading water but not in a useful way.
2. Implied Probability: At -124, the Rays have a 54.8% chance to win (per moneyline odds). That’s not just a probability—it’s a certainty if you’ve seen the Orioles’ lineup.
3. Key Player: Junior Caminero, who homered twice last game, is a -145 favorite to hit over 0.5 home runs. That’s not a prop—it’s a guarantee written in chalk.
Props to Watch:
- Gunnar Henderson’s Total Bases: The O’s slugger is -115 to get over 1.5 total bases. Let’s be real: Henderson’s got a 1.9-projected total in the SportsLine model. If he’s not hitting a triple, this is a lock.
- Ryan Pepiot’s Strikeouts: At -152 for over 6.5 Ks, Pepiot’s got a 61.5% implied chance to fan batters like they’re in a batting practice line.
The Joke:
The Orioles’ best chance? Praying Trevor Rogers outduels Pepiot. But with Rogers at +150 on the moneyline, that’s like betting your dog will beat a cheetah in a sprint—heartwarming, but not likely.
Final Prediction:
The Rays win 5-2, Henderson gets 2 singles and a walk (total bases: 2.0), and Caminero’s HR prop cashes like a lottery ticket. The Orioles’ offense will be so quiet, you’ll hear the crickets in Tampa.
Bonus Prop Bet:
Will the Orioles score more than 3 runs? Under 1000/1. Trust.
Created: July 20, 2025, 2:12 p.m. GMT