Prop Bets: Baltimore Ravens VS Kansas City Chiefs 2025-09-28

Chiefs vs. Ravens: A Tale of Two QBs and a Defense That’s More "Swiss Cheese" Than "Steel Wall"

The Kansas City Chiefs (1-2) and Baltimore Ravens (1-2) square off in a Week 4 clash that’s equal parts "get right" and "don’t embarrass the logo." The Ravens are favored by 2.5 points (-150 implied probability, per their decimal odds of 1.68), but the Chiefs’ +225 moneyline (56.8% implied probability) suggests bookmakers think Baltimore’s defense is about as reliable as a sieve made of Jell-O.

Key Player Props to Bet Your Lunch On
1. Patrick Mahomes Over 1.5 TD Passes (+100 odds): Mahomes threw for 224 yards last week, and with Xavier Worthy and Jalen Royals back from injury, the Ravens’ NFL-worst defense is about to get a masterclass in "how to not cover wide receivers." Take the over here—Mahomes has thrown at least 2 TDs in 8 straight games.
2. Travis Kelce Under 39.5 Receiving Yards (-115): The line’s so high it’s practically a guarantee. Kelce’s last two games: 38 yards, 22 yards. If he breaks 40, send the Ravens a thank-you note.
3. Kareem Hunt Over 27.5 Rushing Yards (-110): This is a cakewalk. The Ravens’ run defense is missing Nnamdi Madubuike (neck), Travis Jones (knee), and Kyle Van Noy (hamstring). Hunt’s got a 98% chance to hit this, assuming he doesn’t spend the game juggling flaming chainsaws.

Why the Chiefs Could Cover the Spread
The Ravens’ defense is so injury-riddled, it’s like a "Where’s Waldo?" game for defenders. The Chiefs’ offense, meanwhile, has Mahomes and a suddenly healthy WR corps. Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (45-yard run target prop) might try to outrun this disaster, but even Derrick Henry would struggle to average 84.5 rushing yards against this unit.

Total Points: Over 48.5 (Even Odds at Most Books)
With Mahomes’ 240.5-yard over/under (-115) and the Ravens’ porous D, expect a shootout. The Chiefs’ run defense isn’t great, but the Ravens’ run D is worse. This game’s likely to look like a points carnival, not a math test.

Final Prediction
The Chiefs will win this game by the skin of their teeth, likely via a last-minute Mahomes Hail Mary that the Ravens’ defense will somehow let complete. Take Mahomes’ TD prop, the over on total points, and hope Travis Kelce trips on his way to 40 yards.

Remember: Betting is like a bad dating profile—overconfident, slightly delusional, and best done with a clear head (and a calculator). 🏈💰

Created: Sept. 28, 2025, 8:22 p.m. GMT