Prop Bets: Borussia Dortmund VS Atalanta BC 2026-02-25
Prediction: Atalanta vs. Borussia Dortmund – A David-and-Goliath Showdown (With a Twist)
Borussia Dortmund, riding a 2-0 aggregate lead, are the clear favorites here, but Atalanta’s back-against-the-wall energy might just make this a popcorn match. Let’s crunch the numbers and see why this could be a thriller.
The Odds:
- H2H: Dortmund is priced at +300 (implied 25% chance), Atalanta at +215 (46.5%), and a draw at +360 (21.5%).
- Totals: Over 2.5 goals is -165 (60.6% implied), while Under is +210 (32.4%). Given Dortmund’s meager 3 goals in 8 games this season and Atalanta’s desperate need to score, someone is going to find the net.
Player Props to Watch:
1. Gianluca Scamacca (Atalanta): Anytime goal scorer at +125 (42.1% implied). If he scores, Atalanta’s hopes stay alive.
2. Serhou Guirassy (Dortmund): Anytime goal scorer at +160 (38.5% implied). He’s already netted twice in the tie—can he add a hat trick?
3. First Goal: Scamacca is the favorite at +330 (23.3% implied), while Guirassy is at +500 (16.7%).
4. Shots: Scamacca (-910) and Guirassy (-250) are locks to exceed 2.5 shots. Dortmund’s Julian Brandt (-135) is a safer bet than Atalanta’s Davide Zappacosta (+290).
The Script:
Dortmund’s defense, which has leaked 1.5 goals per game this season, might crack under Atalanta’s pressure. The Italian side’s recent 2-1 win over Napoli (despite a controversial red card) proves they’re not a pushover. But can they overcome a 2-0 deficit? History says no—only 15% of teams overturn two-goal deficits in CL second legs. Yet, Atalanta’s 1.78 odds (50.6% implied) for a first-half goal suggest bookmakers think they’ll try to shock the world early.
The Verdict:
Dortmund’s experience in tight ties and their rock-solid 2-0 lead make them the safer bet. But if you’re feeling lucky, back Scamacca to score and force extra time (+125). And if you really want to gamble, take Lazar Samardzic to assist (+250).
Final Score Prediction:
Borussia Dortmund 1, Atalanta 1 (Aggregate: 3-2). A dramatic draw forces penalties, where Dortmund’s keeper Gregor Kobel will surely “save the day” (and your dignity).
“It’s a Champions League tie. Expect the unexpected—or at least a few red cards.” 🎱⚽
Created: Feb. 25, 2026, 5:31 p.m. GMT