Prop Bets: Borussia Dortmund VS Augsburg 2025-10-31
Borussia Dortmund vs. Augsburg: A Bundesliga Battle of the Battered and the Bold
October 31, 2025 | 7:30 PM ET | Implied Probabilities: Dortmund 61%, Augsburg 21%, Draw 23%
The Setup
Borussia Dortmund, fresh off a penalty-kick odyssey against Frankfurt (where Gregor Kobel became a hero and a legend), now faces Augsburg. Meanwhile, Augsburg, still reeling from a 0-6 humiliation to Leipzig, will hope to avoid a double-whammy after their recent DFB-Pokal exit to Bochum. Dortmund’s legs might be leaden, but their odds? Not so much.
The Numbers
- Moneyline: Dortmund (-1.61) is the bookies’ golden child, while Augsburg (+4.3) is the underdog with the heart of a caffeinated squirrel.
- Spread: Dortmund (-0.75) is favored to avoid a repeat of their Frankfurt thriller, though Augsburg (+0.75) might cling to the hope of a shock.
- Totals: Under 3.5 goals (-1.61) is the pick, because neither team’s attack is firing on all cylinders.
Player Props to Bet Against
- Serhou Guirassy (-150): The "First Goal Scorer" favorite? More like the "First to Score, Then Celebrate in Slow Motion" favorite. His implied probability (60%) is laughable—unless you’ve bet on him.
- Karim Adeyemi (-143): The "Anytime Goal Scorer" darling? He’s got the talent, but Dortmund’s midfield might be too preoccupied with not collapsing again.
- No Scorer (+1500): A long shot, but if Dortmund’s attack implodes, this could be the most profitable bet since the 2020 Bundesliga winter break.
Why Dortmund Will Win (Probably)
Because they’re Borussia Dortmund, and Augsburg’s defense looks like a sieve that’s been told to act like a dam. Dortmund’s 61% implied win probability isn’t just math—it’s tradition, trauma, and a healthy dose of "you’re not Bayern."
Why Augsburg Might Shock Us (Unlikely)
If Alexis Claude Maurice (220) can finally score, and Matsima stops defying physics on set pieces, maybe. But Augsburg’s 21% chance is about as realistic as a snowstorm in the Sahara.
Final Prediction
Dortmund 3-0 Augsburg. Guirassy scores, Adeyemi gets an assist, and the bookies collect another $1.61 from your despair.
“The only thing more certain than Dortmund’s win is that Serhou Guirassy will take a selfie after scoring. It’s in the contract.” — Your Humble Handicapper, 2025.
Created: Oct. 29, 2025, 7:11 a.m. GMT