Prop Bets: Boston Red Sox VS New York Yankees 2025-09-30
Yankees vs. Red Sox: A Rivalry for the Ages (and a Few Prop Bets)
The Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees clash in a playoff opener that’s less about baseball and more about proving who’s better at pretending to care about small-market vs. corporate overlords. But let’s cut through the noise and focus on the stats and odds that’ll make you look like a genius at the office pool.
🔥 Top Player Props to Cash In On
1. Alex Bregman (Yankees) – Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130)
- Why? Bregman’s .319 BA vs. LHP Max Fried? He’s got a 59.4% implied chance (1 / (1 + 1.3) = 43.5% for under, so over’s 56.5%). With Fried’s 5.5 K/9, Bregman’s line is a safe bet to hit, run, and drive in at least 2 bases.
- Cody Bellinger (Yankees) – Over 0.5 RBIs (-140)
- Why? Bellinger’s 31.25% implied chance (1 / 1.7) to score or drive in a run. He’s 5-for-14 vs. Fried this season, including a HR. Lay the -140 and watch him feast on a pitcher who’s allowed 11 HRs in his last 5 starts.
- Aaron Judge (Yankees) – Under 1.5 Total Bases (-120)
- Why? Judge’s playoff slump (3-for-20, .150 BA) and Fried’s 3.29 ERA? The implied 55% chance for under is a contrarian gem. Judge’s xBA (.081) vs. LHPs? Not pretty.
🎯 Pitcher Props: Don’t Bet on Drama
- Max Fried – Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-115)
Fried’s 7.2 K/9 is nice, but his 4.28 FIP and 4.5 BB/9? The implied 52.4% chance for under 7.5 Ks is a playable fade.
- Garrett Crochet – Under 17.5 Outs (-140)
Crochet’s 1.2 HR/9 and 4.5 BB/9? The implied 54.5% for under 17.5 innings is a smart fade.
🐴 Final Verdict
The Yankees (-150) are slight favorites, but the real money’s in Bregman’s power and Bellinger’s clutch. The total (O6.5 -110) is a toss-up, but with both teams’ lineups, over is safer.
Prediction: Yankees win 5-3, Bregman hits a HR, and Bellinger steals a base to make you the office hero.
“In the end, it’s not about the money. It’s about the glory… and also the $5 you won’t lose on this prop.” 🎩⚾
Created: Sept. 30, 2025, 9:07 p.m. GMT