Prop Bets: Boston Red Sox VS Tampa Bay Rays 2025-09-20
Red Sox vs. Rays: A Tale of Two Lineups (and a Few Over/Unders)
September 20, 2025 — 7:06 PM ET
The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are set for a clash that’s less “David vs. Goliath” and more “Goliath vs. Goliath with a slightly better haircut.” Let’s break it down with the precision of a knuckleballer’s grip.
The Odds
- Moneyline: Rays are slight favorites at -111, Red Sox at +159.
- Spread: Rays -1.5 (-111), Red Sox +1.5 (-111).
- Total: 8 runs (-110 both sides).
Implied probabilities? The Rays need to win ~52.4% of the time to justify their odds. The Red Sox? A 38.7% shot to defy logic and Garrett Crochet’s recent dominance.
Key Players & Props
1. Yandy Diaz (Rays): Over/Under 0.5 doubles at +250. Bet “Over” if you believe in his .297 average and 24 HRs. Bet “Under” if you’ve seen him strike out against lefties.
2. Trevor Story (Red Sox): Over/Under 1.5 hits at -140. Story’s .268 average and 25 HRs say “Over,” but his 1.5 K/BB ratio says “Under.” Pick your poison.
3. Adrian Houser (Rays): Over/Under 4.5 strikeouts at +124. Houser’s 8.7 K/9 says “Over,” but the Rays’ 21-24 record vs. LHPs says “Under.”
4. Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Over/Under 1.5 RBIs at -141. Duran’s 93 RBIs on the season? Let’s just say the “Over” is a safe bet unless he’s facing a relief pitcher.
Why the Rays Might Win
- Lefty vs. Righty: The Rays are 57-54 vs. RHPs but a putrid 18-24 vs. LHPs. Harrison (RHP) starts for Boston.
- Power: Rays lead MLB in HRs (173) and average (.252). Red Sox? 180 HRs, but their .254 average is inflated by 13 triples.
Why the Red Sox Might Win
- Garrett Crochet: Acquired for a reason. He’s 5-0 in his last 5 starts, including a 10-strikeout gem last week.
- Low Scoring? The Red Sox have the 4th-best ERA (3.73) and strike out 8.7 per game. Let’s hope Houser (3.84 ERA) doesn’t serve up a moonshot to Diaz.
Prop Pick of the Night
Yandy Diaz Over 0.5 doubles (+250). The man hits doubles like they’re going out of style (.297 OBP, 24 doubles).
Final Prediction
The Rays win 4-3 in 10 innings, thanks to a walk-off single by… checks notes… someone. The Red Sox will thank their 3.73 ERA but lament another “one run, we’re cursed” loss.
Bet the Under on total runs (8.0) — these bullpens are too good for a slugfest.
Lineup tip: If you’re betting on Story’s hits prop, bring a raincoat. It’s going to be a long night. 🌧️⚾
Created: Sept. 20, 2025, 3:34 p.m. GMT