Prop Bets: Buffalo Bills VS Houston Texans 2025-11-20

"Bills Stumble into Houston: A Date with the EPA and a Sore Texans Run Defense"

The Buffalo Bills, masters of the “Let’s run James Cook until he’s 85” strategy, face a Houston Texans defense that’s basically the NFL’s version of a locked door. The Texans allow a measly 3.3 yards per carry (1st in the league) and have stifled top rushers like a group of over-caffeinated librarians. James Cook, Buffalo’s second-leading rusher in the NFL (968 yards), is the key to unlocking this fortress—but the Bills are 0-3 when their EPA per rush dips below 0.1. Spoiler: This game will either be a “Cook-Off” or a “Cooked” scenario.

Odds Breakdown (as of 1:15 PM ET kickoff):
- Moneyline: Buffalo (-130) vs. Houston (+110) → Implied probability: 56.5% Bills win, 47.6% Texans win (overlap = 3.9% vig).
- Spread: Bills -6.0 (-110) / Texans +6.0 (-110).
- Total: 43.5 points (Even money on Over/Under).

Why the Bills Should Win (But Might Not):
- Cook’s 85.4 PFF grade is elite, but the Texans have not allowed a single 25+ rush this season.
- Buffalo’s 7-0 when EPA per rush > 0.1… and 0-3 when it’s not. Houston’s defense is basically a EPA extinguisher.

Why the Texans Could Shock You:
- Davis Mills, the “Quick-Release King” (2.59 seconds to throw, 3rd in NFL), faces a Bills defense that ranks 6th in pressure rate. If Mills isn’t sacked, Houston’s 43.5-point underdog energy might surprise.
- Remember that 2024 win? The Texans covered +1.5 as underdogs with a last-second field goal. History’s a fickle lover, but it loves upsets.

Player Props to Watch (via PrizePicks context):
- James Cook Over 85 Rush Yards (-110): The Texans have held 5/5 top-15 rushers under 75 yards. This line’s a trap.
- Davis Mills Under 25 Pass Yards (-120): His quick release could limit big plays, but the Over is tempting if you’re feeling spicy.

Final Verdict:
The Bills should win, but the spread is a “-6.0” gauntlet. If Cook can’t break 100 yards, Buffalo’s offense might as well pack up and go home. The Under 43.5 points is a “Houston, we have a problem” scenario unless Mills turns into a Hail Mary machine.

Prediction: Buffalo wins 23-20, covers the spread by 1 point, and James Cook gets 92 yards to make you regret not betting on the Over.

“Run it back? More like run it into the ground, James.” 🏈

Created: Nov. 20, 2025, 1:53 p.m. GMT