Prop Bets: Buffalo Bills VS New England Patriots 2025-12-14

BUFFALO BILLS VS. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: A RIVALRY AS OLD AS JOSH ALLEN’S BEARD

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a Week 15 classic: the Bills (1.85 moneyline) vs. Patriots (2.0) AFC East title decider. The odds say Buffalo’s favored, but New England’s +1.5 spread implies they’re not just here to hand over the division crown on a silver platter. Let’s break it down with the precision of a QB rating calculator.

The Spread: Buffalo -1.5 (-114), New England +1.5 (-106)
The Bills are slight chalk, but don’t sleep on the Patriots’ “we’ll take it to the wire” energy. Remember: Buffalo’s rushing attack (157.8 YPG, NFL-best) will gash New England’s defense, which has allowed 100+ rushing yards in four straight. James Cook? He’s got 80.5 rushing yards (-114) on the menu, and with the Bills’ D holding the Patriots to 89.5 YPG, this could be a literal cookout.

Totals: 48.5 Points (Even Odds)
The cold weather? It’s a scorched earth policy for passing games. But with Buffalo’s Josh Allen (250+ passing yards in 6/7 games) and the Pats’ shaky secondary (6.4 YPA allowed), expect a “high-scoring” clash that translates to “moderate points, maximum drama.”

Prop Bets to Steal Your Soul
1. Josh Allen Over 228.5 Passing Yards (-114): He’s averaged 253 YPG in his last two vs. New England. The Patriots’ defense? A sieve. A sieve with a 4.00 DVOA.
2. Rhamondre Stevenson Anytime TD (+230): The Patriots’ backfield committee is a red-zone roulette wheel. Stevenson had two TDs last meeting; with Mike Vrabel’s love for committee carries, he’s your guy.
3. TreVeyon Henderson Longest Rush Over 14.5 Yards (-114): Buffalo’s run defense is a piñata (31st in rush EPA). Henderson’s already got three 25+ rush TDs this year. Bring the party.

The Verdict
Buffalo’s -1.5 line is a math problem, not a bet. The Bills’ D is gaudy enough to make the Patriots’ offense cry, and Josh Allen’s arm is too hot to ignore. But if you must play it safe, take the Patriots +1.5 and hope Buffalo’s “AFC East pride” turns into a 3-point win.

Final Score Prediction: Bills 27, Patriots 24. Because nothing says “respect” like losing by 3 in a snowstorm.

Implied probability of Bills win: ~54.6% (from 1.85 moneyline). Implied total: 48.5 points (even cash). Now go bet wisely, or don’t—this isn’t financial advice. 🏈

Created: Dec. 14, 2025, 3:25 a.m. GMT

Prop Bets: Buffalo Bills VS New England Patriots 2025-12-14

The Verdict Buffalo’s -1.5 line is a math problem, not a bet. The Bills’ D is gaudy enough to make the Patriots’ offense cry, and Josh Allen’s arm is too hot to ignore. But if you must play it safe, take the Patriots +1.5 and hope Buffalo’s “AFC East pride” turns into a 3-point win.

The Verdict
Buffalo’s -1.5 line is a math problem, not a bet. The Bills’ D is gaudy enough to make the Patriots’ offense cry, and Josh Allen’s arm is too hot to ignore. But if you must play it safe, take the Patriots +1.5 and hope Buffalo’s “AFC East pride” turns into a 3-point win.