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Prop Bets: Carlos Alcaraz VS Jan-Lennard Struff 2025-07-04

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jan-Lennard Struff: A David vs. Goliath Farce (With a 98% Implied Probability of Goliath Winning)

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for what might be the most lopsided “upset” in tennis history! Carlos Alcaraz, the defending Wimbledon champion with a 20-match winning streak and a 98.04% implied probability (per the bookies’ math), is favored at 1.02 decimal odds (or -3030 American, if you’re into self-punishment). Meanwhile, Jan-Lennard Struff, ranked No. 125, is priced at 15.0 to pull off a miracle. Let’s call it “Struff vs. Alcaraz: The Rabbit Hole Revisited,” because the only time Struff has beaten Alcaraz was in 2021, likely after Alcaraz accidentally played with a tennis ball made of Jell-O.

Key Stats & Value Bets:
- Alcaraz’s dominance: 3-1 career vs. Struff, including a -7.5 game spread favorite. Bet him to cover the spread (-7.5) at 1.8–1.95 odds. Why? Because even if Struff steals a set, Alcaraz will likely end the match with the grace of a tennis-playing superhero.
- Struff’s hope: He’s 3-5 in his last eight matches but has “resilience” on his side. The +7.5 spread (1.87–2.0 odds) is your best shot at a payout if you fancy Struff to make Alcaraz sweat—a bit.
- Totals: The line sits at 30.5–31.5 games. Given Alcaraz’s airtight serve and Struff’s… well, let’s just say Struff’s return game isn’t a Netflix thriller, under 31.5 at 1.87–1.95 is a safe bet.

Player Props?
Not many, but here’s a freebie: Bet Alcaraz to win in straight sets unless you enjoy financial self-sabotage.

The Verdict:
Alcaraz is the human equivalent of a “free tennis lesson.” Struff’s only path to glory is if Alcaraz decides to practice his backhand into the stands for 90 minutes. Stick with the spread or under the total—Struff’s not here to party, he’s here to not make Wimbledon history.

Final Score Prediction: Alcaraz 6-2, 6-3, 6-4. Struff’s underdog odds? Still 15.0. Your wallet? 0-2.

Bet responsibly, or responsibly bet on Alcaraz. The difference is negligible. 🎾

Created: July 4, 2025, 10:46 a.m. GMT