Prop Bets: Chepe Mariscal VS Pat Sabatini 2025-11-15
UFC 322: Chepe Mariscal vs. Pat Sabatini – A Grappler’s Worst Nightmare?
Let’s cut to the chase: Pat Sabatini (-134) is the chalk here, per the odds, but Chepe Mariscal (+120) is the guy with a 5-0 UFC résumé and a takedown defense stat so sturdy, it makes a vault look flimsy (73%, folks!). Sabatini, with his 13 submission wins, is basically a human octopus, but Mariscal’s pressure fighting and near-flawless takedown defense might just force Pat to ask, “Wait, do I even want to grapple here?”
The Numbers:
- Sabatini’s implied win probability: ~59% (decimal odds: 1.82).
- Mariscal’s implied win probability: ~49.5% (decimal odds: 2.02).
- Totals prop bet: Over 2.5 rounds at -415 (59.17% implied) vs. Under 2.5 rounds at +340 (46.73% implied).
Why It’s a Pick’em Trap:
Sabatini’s grappling résumé is impressive, but Mariscal’s 73% takedown defense is like a firewall for his back. If Pat wants to roll, Chepe’s saying, “Not today, sir.” The fight could hinge on whether Sabatini can secure a takedown without getting caught in Mariscal’s counterattacks.
Prop Bet Alert:
- Over 2.5 rounds is the safer play. These two are too skilled and too aware of each other’s strengths to let the fight end in a flashy KO or early submission. Expect a chess match that goes the distance—or at least past Round 2.5 (i.e., Round 3, for those keeping score at home).
Prediction:
Sabatini wins by decision, but Mariscal’s going to be the guy who makes the oddsmakers eat their words. This is the fight where Pat Sabatini realizes that “five-star grappling” isn’t a guarantee when your opponent’s defense is a Swiss Army knife.
Final Score: Sabatini (-134) grinds out the win, but Mariscal (+120) steals the show. The Over 2.5 rounds prop? That’s going down like a Netflix series—no one wants it to end.
Bet responsibly, or don’t. The MMA gods have a cruel sense of humor. 🥋
Created: Nov. 15, 2025, 9:46 p.m. GMT