Prop Bets: Chicago Cubs VS Cincinnati Reds 2025-09-20
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds: A Tale of Two Sluggers (and a Few Desperate Hopes)
September 20, 2025 | 6:40 PM ET
The Setup:
The Chicago Cubs (-112) roll into Cincinnati as slight favorites, riding their 63.6% win rate as underdogs or favorites this season. The Reds (-107) are the definition of "desperate," with a 48.1% success rate when playing from behind. It’s a classic David vs. Goliath matchup… if David had a .245 team batting average and Goliath had a .249 average. Close enough!
The Stars to Watch:
- Ian Happ (Cubs): The man with the "Over 0.5 hits" line at -222. That’s a 68.75% implied probability. Translation: Happ’s going to get a hit. It’s not a maybe. It’s a when.
- Seiya Suzuki (Cubs): His "Over 1.5 RBIs" line is -135. That’s 55.8% implied chance. Expect Suzuki to either be a hero or a goat. Probably a hero.
- Zack Littell (Reds): The Reds’ pitcher faces a "Over 3.5 strikeouts" prop at -158 (60.4% implied). If he doesn’t strike out 4+ batters, Cincinnati’s chances of winning drop to about 0.0001%.
The Prop Picks of Doom:
- Elly De La Cruz (Reds): "Over 0.5 triples" at +340. Let’s be real—this is a 28.6% shot. De La Cruz will either triple or forget how to swing.
- Carson Kelly (Reds): "Over 1.5 total bases" at +140. If Kelly doesn’t hit a double, the Reds’ offense might as well pack it in.
The Pitcher Showdown:
- Javier Assad (Cubs): His "Under 3.5 strikeouts" line is -168 (62.8% implied). If he whiffs fewer than 4 batters, the Cubs’ defense better be ready for a rally.
- Zack Littell (Reds): The "Over 9.0 runs" total is 1.91. With the Reds’ 4.5-run average, this game could be a fireworks show… or a snoozer.
The Verdict:
The Cubs’ 4.9-run average vs. the Reds’ 4.5-run average? A statistical tie! But the Cubs’ 7th-ranked offense vs. the Reds’ 22nd-ranked pitching? That’s a mismatch. Final Prediction: Cubs 6, Reds 4. Why? Because when Suzuki’s RBIs and Happ’s hits align, even the Reds’ "Over 9.0 runs" line (1.91) looks like a long shot.
Bonus Prop Bet:
"Will the Reds’ bench clear for a fight after the 5th inning?"
- Yes: +200 (If Littell gives up 5 ER)
- No: -300 (If he doesn’t)
Place your bets, but don’t blame us when Suzuki triples and your bracket explodes. 🎉⚾
Created: Sept. 20, 2025, 3:31 p.m. GMT