Prop Bets: Chicago Cubs VS Milwaukee Brewers 2025-10-04
Cubs vs. Brewers NLDS Game 1 Prediction: A Tale of Two Bullpens
The Milwaukee Brewers (-144) are favored to advance the Cubs’ collective blood pressure to dangerous levels. Why? Because their bullpen is a well-oiled machine (3.63 ERA) and their starter, Freddy Peralta, is 17-5 with 24 quality starts this season. The Cubs (+119), meanwhile, scored 6 runs total in their Wild Card series and are counting on Matthew Boyd to outduel a pitcher who’s pitched like a Cy Young contender. Spoiler: They won’t.
Why the Brewers Win:
- Peralta’s 24 starts with 24+ innings? That’s not a typo. He’s a workhorse.
- The Cubs’ offense: 34 HRs in 162 games. They’ll need a mercy rule to score 8 runs tonight.
- The implied total is 7 runs… but the model says 8.5. Let’s just say the Over is for masochists.
Prop Bets to Mock:
- Michael Busch O/U 1.5 RBIs: He’s hit .400 in the playoffs, but can he carry the Cubs on his back? Probably not. Take the Under.
- Peralta to Win: At +262, it’s a “buy low” on a near-lock. The Brewers’ bullpen will finish what he starts.
Final Score Prediction:
Milwaukee 4, Chicago 2. The Cubs’ offense will be so quiet, you’ll hear the Brewers’ relief pitchers breathing.
Implied Probability Check:
- Brewers ML (-144) = 58.6% win chance.
- Cubs ML (+119) = 45.6% win chance.
- Over/Under 7.5 runs: 50/50. But trust the model: Over 8.5 is 34% implied.
Verdict: This is a “pitcher’s duel” where the Cubs’ bats will be as silent as a nun’s diary. Take the Brewers and Under the total—unless you enjoy suffering.
Created: Oct. 4, 2025, 3:57 p.m. GMT