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Prop Bets: Chicago Cubs VS Minnesota Twins 2025-07-10

Cubs vs. Twins: A Tale of Two Pitchers and a Home Run Prop

The Chicago Cubs (-120) are favored to avoid a sweep at Target Field, where they’ll send Colin Rea (13-5, 3.83 ERA) to the mound. The Twins, led by the struggling Chris Paddack (4.64 ERA, 5.73 xERA), are 45.5% to pull off a miracle. Rea’s 13-5 record at home this season? That’s basically a math problem the Twins can’t solve.

Why the Cubs Win:
- Rea’s 3.83 ERA vs. Paddack’s 4.64 ERA = a pitching match-up that smells like a Cubs win.
- The Cubs’ .275/.345/.462 slugger Trevor Larnach (yes, he’s on the Twins) is a +750 prop bet to hit a HR. Let’s be real—he’s got the power, but this park? Not so much.

Why the Twins Might Survive:
- Paddack’s “struggles” are overstated… in a comically bad way. His 5.73 xERA means he’s basically a human HR machine.
- The Twins’ 4.13 team ERA vs. the Cubs’ 3.83? A 0.3-run difference. That’s the length of a hot dog.

Prop Bet Pick:
Trevor Larnach HR No-Hitter (-750). Sure, he’s a .275 hitter, but if Paddack’s control is as shaky as a toddler on a tricycle, Larnach might as well be trying to hit a HR while juggling pineapples.

Final Prediction: Cubs 5, Twins 3. The Twins will score 3 runs, Rea will eat a sandwich, and Larnach’s HR prop? A very long shot.

Implied probabilities: Cubs 54.5%, Twins 45.5%. Take the underdog story, not the underdog. 🎩⚾

Created: July 10, 2025, 4:04 p.m. GMT