Prop Bets: Cincinnati Reds VS Arizona Diamondbacks 2025-08-22
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: A Grand Slam of Disappointment (with a Side of Ketel Marte Heroics)
The Arizona Diamondbacks (-134) host the Cincinnati Reds in a matchup that’s less “thrilling showdown” and more “who can trip over their own feet first.” Arizona’s offense, which averages 4.9 runs per game (178 HRs, thank you very much), will face Cincinnati’s Zack Littell, a pitcher who’s allowed 27 home runs this season—tied for the second-worst mark in MLB. Meanwhile, Cincinnati’s lineup (4.5 R/G, 127 HRs) will try to exploit Arizona’s Ryne Nelson, who’s 6-3 with a 3.58 ERA but also strikes out batters like they’re in a mosh pit (7.9 K/9).
Key Props to Watch:
- Ketel Marte (+500 to homer): With Littell’s ERA at home a bloated 6.25, Marte’s +500 line feels like a gift. The SportsLine model has him at +330, so take the underdog and cheer as he launches one into the second row.
- First HR of the Game: Corbin Carroll and Marte are both +700 to lead off, which is basically giving you 7:1 odds on a duo that’s hit a combined 47 HRs this season. Take your pick—Carroll’s speed or Marte’s power.
- Total Under 10.5 Runs: With Nelson’s 3.58 ERA and Littell’s 4.52 ERA, this game smells like a pitcher’s duel. The Under is 1.85-1.95 across books—take the safe bet and enjoy a 2-1 final.
Why Arizona Wins (Probably):
The D-backs are 40-38 when favored this season, and their .251 BA edges Cincinnati’s .248. Plus, Nelson’s 99 strikeouts in 113⅔ innings suggest he’ll keep the Reds’ bats quiet. Cincinnati’s +1.77 moneyline is tempting, but their 3.79 ERA is no match for Arizona’s 4.55.
Why Cincinnati Might Shock You:
Littell’s 6.25 ERA at home is a typo waiting to happen, and the Reds are 35-14 as underdogs. If Elly De La Cruz (+650 HR) or Spencer Steer (+1000 HR) connect, this could get spicy.
Final Prediction:
Arizona 4, Cincinnati 2. Marte homers, Nelson pitches into the sixth, and the Reds’ offense chokes on Nelson’s sliders. Bet the Under and a Marte HR prop—because why not?
“If you can’t beat ’em, at least bet on the guy who’ll hit a home run while you’re still wondering why Littell looks like he’s playing catch with a grenade.”
Created: Aug. 23, 2025, 2:19 a.m. GMT