Prop Bets: Cincinnati Reds VS New York Mets 2025-07-18
Mets vs. Reds: A Lefty's Lament and a Prop Bet Bonanza
The New York Mets, fresh off a brutal .671 OPS against left-handed pitching this season, face a familiar foe in Cincinnati’s Nick Lodolo (3.38 ERA). With Sean Manaea toeing the rubber for the Mets, this game is shaping up to be a statistical nightmare for the home team. Let’s break it down with the precision of a spreadsheet and the humor of a broken calculator.
The Moneyline:
- Reds (+2.3): Implied probability = ~30.77% (odds: 2.3).
- Mets (-1.65): Implied probability = ~60.61% (odds: 1.65).
Verdict: The Mets are the "safe" bet, but given their .671 OPS against lefties, "safe" might mean a 1-0 loss.
The Spread:
- Mets -1.5 (-110): Bet $10 to win $9.
- Reds +1.5 (-110): Bet $10 to win $9.
Verdict: Take the Reds +1.5. Nothing says "confidence" like letting a team with a .671 OPS cover 1.5 runs.
Total Runs (7.5):
- Under 7.5 (-110): The Mets’ offense vs. Lodolo? This is the most sensible play since sliced bread.
Pitcher Props:
- Nick Lodolo (Reds): Under 5.5 strikeouts (-185). Lodolo’s 5.5 Ks? More likely to strike out the entire Mets lineup.
- Sean Manaea (Mets): Over 4.5 strikeouts (-165). Manaea’s 4.5 Ks? A generous estimate.
Batter Props (Pick the Absurd):
- Francisco Lindor: Over 0.5 hits (-240). He’s a .300 hitter—against righties. Against Lodolo? A .100 slash line. Still, take the over for the drama.
- Pete Alonso: Over 0.5 home runs (-310). The "No Dingers" special. A 310-to-1 shot? Sounds about right.
- Elly De La Cruz: Over 0.5 stolen bases (500). At +500, it’s a "maybe" if he gets a leadoff walk.
The Real Storyline:
The Mets’ .671 OPS against lefties is like a toddler trying to solve a Rubik’s Cube—full of potential, but not today. Lodolo’s 3.38 ERA? That’s a mercy rate for them.
Final Prediction:
The Mets will lose 2-1, with Lodolo striking out 6 and Manaea 4. Francisco Lindor will go 0-for-4 with a fly ball caught by a seagull. Take the UNDER 7.5 and profit from the Mets’ misery.
Bonus Prop to Bet: Reds’ Tyrone Taylor to steal a base (+1400). Because why not? It’s as likely as a Mets win.
Final Thought: This game is a left-handed masterclass for the Reds and a cautionary tale for the Mets. Buckle up—it’s going to be a fun 9 innings. 🎩⚾
Created: July 18, 2025, 9:03 p.m. GMT