Prop Bets: Cincinnati Reds VS New York Mets 2025-07-20

Mets vs. Reds: A Game for the Stat Geeks (and the Sleep-Deprived)
The New York Mets (-130) take on the Cincinnati Reds (+110) in a matchup that’s less "thrilling" and more "let’s see who can blink first." Here’s the lowdown, served with a side of statistical sarcasm.

Why the Mets Should Win (Probably):
- David Peterson (Mets’ starter) has a 3.61 ERA this season. That’s not great, but it’s slightly better than the Reds’ Andrew Abbott’s 2.23 ERA. Wait, no—Abbott’s the underdog? That’s like asking a snail to race a cheetah.
- The Mets are 14th in scoring (4.4 R/G) but 4th in pitching (3.61 ERA). They’re the baseball version of a team that only wins when the other side’s offense takes a coffee break.
- The Reds are 10th in runs scored (449 total) but 26th in ERA (5.12). They’re like a dessert menu that’s all calories and no flavor.

Why the Reds Might Shock Us (Probably Not):
- Abbott, the Reds’ starter, has a 2.23 ERA. That’s impressive… until you realize the Mets’ lineup includes Pete Alonso (25 HRs this season) and Juan Soto (32 HRs). Abbott’s a brave man. Or a fool. Possibly both.

Key Prop Bets to Waste Your Money On:
1. Pete Alonso HR Over 0.5 (-280): It’s +280 for a half home run? That’s like paying $28 to bet Alonso will hit a dinger and a double in the same at-bat. Take it.
2. Francisco Lindor RBI Over 1.5 (-120): The Mets’ shortstop has 68 RBIs this year. Bet he’ll add one more. Or don’t. The odds are mathematically certain.
3. Total Game Runs Under 8.5 (-110): The Mets’ pitching staff has a 3.61 ERA. The Reds’ offense? 5.12. This game’s as high-scoring as a tax audit.

Implied Probabilities (Because Math):
- Mets Moneyline (-130): Implied probability = 56.5%.
- Reds Moneyline (+110): Implied probability = 47.6%.
- Total (Under 8.5, -110): Implied probability = 52.4%.

Final Verdict:
The Mets win 4-2. Abbott pitches like a man who’s seen the ending of Tenet and doesn’t understand it. Alonso hits a solo shot in the 9th. The Reds’ offense collectively forgets how to swing. And somewhere, a fan dozes off mid-inning.

Bet responsibly. Or don’t. The Reds’ offense is a cautionary tale. 🎲⚾

Created: July 20, 2025, 2:39 p.m. GMT