Prop Bets: Cleveland Guardians VS New York Mets 2025-08-06
Mets vs. Guardians: A Tale of Two Offenses (and Why You Should Bet on Doubles)
The New York Mets (-175) stride into this matchup like a 13th-ranked offense that somehow forgot it’s supposed to be mediocre. The Cleveland Guardians (+2.5) bring their 26th-ranked offense, which is about as thrilling as watching a spreadsheet auto-calculate. Let’s break this down with the mathematical precision of a guy who once bet his lunch money on a dachshund race.
The Moneyline Math
The Mets’ implied probability of winning (63.6%) vs. the Guardians’ 28.6% is like comparing your chance of surviving a New York sidewalk to Cleveland’s chance of surviving a Mets game. The Guardians have won 27 games as underdogs this season—impressive, until you realize 27 losses as underdogs would’ve been better for their ego.
Pitching Props: A Skilled Guessing Game
- David Peterson (Mets): Over 4.5 strikeouts (-144). If you think Peterson will strike out 5+ batters, you’re betting he’ll do the New York version of “show, don’t tell.”
- Gavin Williams (Guardians): Over 5.5 strikeouts (+104). Williams needs to strike out 6 to make this bet pay off—good luck, Gavin. The Guardians score 4 runs per game. Cue the “Wait, did we bring a sacrifice bunt?” montage.
Player Props: Alonso’s Doubling Down
Pete Alonso’s Over/Under 0.5 doubles prop is +450/ -500. If you’re betting “Over,” you’re banking on Alonso turning into a human double-play machine. If you’re betting “Under,” you’re just sad.
The Total: 7.5 Runs (Take the Under Like Your Batting Average)
With the Mets at 4.4 R/G and the Guardians at 4.0 R/G, this game smells like a combined effort to make statisticians weep into their coffee. The Under 7.5 (-110) is a bet that neither team will break a sweat scoring.
Final Verdict
The Mets win 4-2, because even a broken clock is right twice a day—and the Mets’ offense is a clock that’s 4.5 runs behind. But if you must bet, take the Under 7.5 and a side bet on Alonso to double. It’s the only way to make this game feel like a home run.
Disclaimer: This prediction is not financial advice. It’s just a guy on the internet pretending to know math. Also, the Guardians’ best chance is to hope Alonso trips over first base. Good luck. 🎲⚾
Created: Aug. 6, 2025, 8:40 a.m. GMT