Prop Bets: Cleveland Guardians VS Tampa Bay Rays 2025-09-04

Prediction: The Guardians Go 0-for-8, and Ryan Pepiot Strikes Out the Side in Order (Twice)

The Cleveland Guardians, a team that’s somehow managed to turn "low-scoring" into an art form, will face off against Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot, who’s been handed the impossible task of keeping the game scoreless. Let’s be real: this matchup is like watching a mime try to explain calculus—both will fail, but Pepiot’s got the better résumé.

Why the Rays Win (Again):
The Guardians’ offense is a team that’s mastered the art of almost hitting a home run. They rank 27th in MLB in runs per game and have the contact rate of a guy who’s allergic to the plate. Tampa’s Logan Allen, meanwhile, has a 3.89 ERA and a WHIP that’s low enough to make a submarine jealous. The Rays are -142 favorites, and with their 60.3% win rate as favorites, they’ll probably win this by stifling Cleveland’s offense into a 2-3 run total.

Prop Bets to Cash In On:
- Ryan Pepiot Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-115): Pepiot’s got a 5.5 K prop? That’s like giving a magician a deck of cards and telling him to “do your thing.” His 8.8 K/9 this season suggests he’ll flirt with the over, especially if Cleveland’s batters keep swinging at pitches in the dirt like they’re playing a game of “Don’t Touch the Floor.”
- Team Total Under 8.5 Runs (-115): The Guardians are the kings of the “Under 2 Runs” dynasty. Their team batting average is .223, and their OBP is so low it’s practically a secret society. Tampa’s bullpen? It’s a fortress. This game will be a pitcher’s duel, and the Under 8.5 is a sure bet for anyone who’s seen Cleveland’s lineup try to hit a curveball.

The Verdict:
The Rays win 2-1 in a game where the Guardians go 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position. Pepiot strikes out 6, and the crowd at Progressive Field will be so quiet you’ll hear the crickets… and maybe the sound of the front office panicking.

Final Score Prediction: Tampa Bay 2, Cleveland 0.
Prop Pick: Ryan Pepiot Over 5.5 Strikeouts.
Total Pick: Under 8.5 Runs.

Note: If the Guardians score more than 3 runs, I’ll personally eat a glove. (Not a legal offer.)

Created: Sept. 4, 2025, 3:17 p.m. GMT