Prop Bets: Connecticut Sun VS Phoenix Mercury 2025-08-05
WNBA Showdown: Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury – A Tale of Two Teams (and a Lot of Props)
The Setup:
The Phoenix Mercury (17-11) are the 92.8% favorite to win this Tuesday, according to our computers, which probably just means some intern in a spreadsheet said, “Yeah, they’re gonna win.” The Connecticut Sun (5-22) are the underdogs, but hey, they’ve covered the spread 14 times this season—so maybe they’re just strategically bad at winning? The line has Phoenix as 14.5-point favorites, but let’s be real: If Satou Sabally (17.2 PPG) plays, the Mercury might not need the points. If she sits? Suddenly, the Sun have a shot—if Marina Mabrey (back in action) can magically turn into a human highlight reel.
Key Stats to Know:
- Tina Charles (Sun) is averaging 16.1 PPG but is just -114 to score over 14.5 points. Bet on her to just barely hit that number.
- Alyssa Thomas (Mercury) is a prop bet goldmine: She’s -120 to score over 15.5 points and -125 on assists over 8.5. If you’re feeling spicy, back her to rack up 24.5+ points and assists (-125).
- The over/under is 167.5 points, and with these teams averaging 158.3 PPG combined, it’s a toss-up between “free clinic” and “a little less free clinic.”
Prop Bets to Tickle Your Fancy:
- Alyssa Thomas (-125) to score over 15.5 points. She’s basically a points machine in a WNBA uniform.
- Tina Charles (-130) to stay under 14.5 points. Let’s see the Sun’s star prove everyone wrong… by underperforming.
- Marina Mabrey (-130) to drop over 12.5 points. If she’s back to form, this could be a sleeper.
- Satou Sabally (-105) to hit over 1.5 threes. If she’s on, the Mercury are unstoppable. If she’s off… well, good luck.
The Verdict:
The Mercury are a 92.8% implied win probability, which in betting terms means “we’re almost certain, but we’re still charging you.” The Sun? They’re the team that’s 5-22 but 14-13 against the spread—so they’re like the WNBA’s version of a casino: losing big, but covering bigger.
Final Pick:
Take the Phoenix Mercury -14.5 (-110) to cover, but if you’re a masochist, throw a prop on Alyssa Thomas to score 16+ points and 9+ assists. And pray Sabally doesn’t get a cold.
Game tip: If you bet the over, bring a bigger chair. This one’s gonna be a scorcher. 🏀🔥
Created: Aug. 5, 2025, 10:14 p.m. GMT