Prop Bets: Dallas Mavericks VS Miami Heat 2025-11-24
The Dallas Mavericks, fresh off a 5-13 start and missing Anthony Davis (doubtful) and Kyrie Irving (out), are about as likely to win this game as a vegan in a steakhouse. They’re +330 underdogs to the Miami Heat, who’ve welcomed back All-Star guard Tyler Herro from injury and now look like a team that can actually shoot baskets (118.9 PPG, 1st in the league). Miami’s implied total is 124.3 points, while Dallas’ is 115.8—because nothing says “I’m a contender” like scoring less than the Miami Heat’s bench.
Why the Heat will win:
- Herro’s return adds a spark to a Miami offense that’s already the league’s 1st in pace (106.4 possessions/game).
- Dallas’ defense? A sieve. They’re allowing 118.9 PPG, and their starters have played just 4.2 minutes per game this season.
- Cooper Flagg is a prop bet goldmine: OVER 15.5 points (-123). He’s averaging 16.5 PPG in his last 5 games and will feast on a Mavericks defense that’s giving up 30.2 PPG to wings.
Why the Mavericks won’t:
- They’re 1-3 on the road and have the 29th-ranked offense. Luka Dončić is 28 years old and playing like a man who’s forgotten how to dribble.
- Miami’s 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. Dallas is 0-5 ATS in their last 5.
Prop Pick: Cooper Flagg OVER 15.5 points (-123). He’s got the look of a guy who’s about to score 20+ in a game for the first time since 2023.
Final Score Prediction: Miami 122, Dallas 108. Because even if the Mavericks hit a three, the Heat will hit two.
Created: Nov. 24, 2025, 11:29 p.m. GMT