Prop Bets: Elise Mertens VS Aryna Sabalenka 2025-07-06
Wimbledon Round 4 Prediction: Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elise Mertens
When: July 6, 2025 | Time: 2:30 PM UTC | Surface: Grass (because nothing says "chaos" like a blade of grass sticking in your shoe mid-serve)
The Setup:
Aryna Sabalenka, the No. 1 seed and -474 favorite (implied probability: ~82.6%), enters this match with the confidence of a woman who’s beaten Elise Mertens 10 of 12 times—including twice in 2025. Mertens, the plucky No. 23 seed (+333), has the audacity to exist in the same sentence as "upset" after knocking off Elina Svitolina last round.
The Stats:
- Sabalenka’s Edge: 10-2 H2H, 4.5-game spread favorite (-4.5, odds ~1.75).
- Mertens’ Grit: Recent upset specialist (beats Svitolina), but just 1 win in 5 grass-court meetings vs. Sabalenka.
- Total Games: 20.5 games line. Bet the under if you trust Sabalenka’s "dominate and done" style; over if you think Mertens will turn this into a third-set milkshake.
The Humor:
Sabalenka is the human equivalent of a tennis ball machine—relentless, precise, and not here to make friends. Mertens? She’s the "I will fight you in the third set" warrior, armed with a 3-9 record on grass and the determination of someone who’s watched too many underdog Netflix dramas.
Player Props?
Not explicitly listed, but if you can bet on "Mertens pulling off a Houdini act and escaping with a 7-5 third set," do it. It’s the only fun prop here.
Prediction:
Sabalenka wins in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4. Mertens tries to channel her inner Svitolina, but Sabalenka’s forehand is too sharp, and the grass is too slippery for plot twists.
Bet?
Take Sabalenka -4.5 at ~1.75 odds. Unless you’re a masochist, right?
Final Score Prediction: Sabalenka 6-3, 6-4. Implied probability says it’s a done deal, but hope for a Mertens rally. It’ll make for better TV than your ex’s TikTok dance recital.
Note: If you bet the over on total games, you’re paying for Mertens’ pride. Proceed with caution. 🎾
Created: July 6, 2025, 1:42 a.m. GMT