Prop Bets: Florida State Seminoles VS NC State Wolfpack 2025-11-21

Florida State vs. NC State: A Tale of Two QBs and a Reluctant O/U

Ladies and gentlemen, prepare for a Friday night clash that’s less Monday Night Football and more Saturday Night Live—because if there’s one thing college football loves, it’s a good underdog (and a bad offense). The Florida State Seminoles (-6.5, per every bookie from here to LowVig.ag) roll into Raleigh as tasty 6.5-point favorites, but let’s not forget: NC State is 4-1 at home this season, and FSU is 0-3 on the road. Math says the Wolfpack should win. History says the Wolfpack has won five of the last six. But the SportsLine Projection Model? It thinks we’re in for a yawn-fest, projecting a combined 55 points—Under the 59.5 total—because these teams play like they’re billing each yard.

The QB Prop Bets:
- Tommy Castellanos (FSU): The model says he’ll throw for over 250 yards and 2 TDs. Good luck, Tommy! You’ll need to outduel NC State’s CJ Bailey, who’s been held to under 220 yards and 2 TDs in this simulation. Imagine if that’s not what happens. Chaos.
- CJ Bailey (NC State): If you’re betting “Under” on Bailey’s stat line, you’re essentially betting that FSU’s defense (which allows 30+ points weekly) will finally show up. Good luck with that too.

Why the Under?
The model’s love for the Under isn’t just a hunch—it’s a habit. These teams have combined for 61 or fewer points in four straight meetings. With FSU’s anemic offense (30th in FBS in points per game) and NC State’s “I’ll take my chances with the defense” approach, this one’s shaping up to be a nap-inducing 20-10 final.

The Spread:
Florida State’s -6.5 line is a cruel joke. The Seminoles haven’t won a road game since 2022, and NC State’s Carter-Finley Stadium is a fortress. Yet here we are, betting FSU to cover like they’re the favorite. Implied probability? Around 52% (thanks to decimal odds of ~1.91). In other words, this is as reliable as a student-athlete’s Wi-Fi.

Final Verdict:
Take the Under 59.5 and side with NC State (+6.5) if you enjoy watching history repeat itself. Or, better yet, take a nap. Either way, this game’s as exciting as a stats class.

“Tommy Castellanos will throw for 250 yards, or I’m changing my name to Sally.” – The SportsLine Model, probably.

Created: Nov. 21, 2025, 7:10 p.m. GMT