Prop Bets: Francisco Cerundolo VS Leandro Riedi 2025-08-28
Francisco CerĂşndolo vs. Leandro Riedi: A Tale of Two Tummies
The US Open’s Arthur Ashe Stadium is about to host a clash of titans—or at least, a clash of one titan and a qualifier with a first-serve percentage that could power a Tesla. Francisco Cerúndolo (ATP No. 19), Argentina’s last hope, faces Swiss underdog Leandro Riedi (ATP No. 117) in a match so finely balanced, it’s like betting on whether your morning coffee will be hot or just "warmly ambiguous."
The Stats:
- Cerúndolo survived a five-set thriller last round, showcasing the mental grit of a man who’s had to Google “how to tie a shoelace” after abdominal issues sidelined him in Toronto.
- Riedi rolled past Pedro MartĂnez in straight sets, serving like a caffeinated barista (82% first-serve percentage, per the summaries).
The Odds (per bookmakers):
- CerĂşndolo: -144 to -150 (implied probability: ~69-70%)
- Riedi: +260 to +280 (implied probability: ~33-35%)
- Spread: CerĂşndolo -3.5 to -4.5 (odds: -200 to -220)
- Total Games: 37.5-38.5 (Over/Under odds: ~1.88-1.91 for Over)
Why CerĂşndolo Might Win:
He’s a three-time ATP titlist with the baseline stamina of a man who’s run a marathon in flip-flops. If he can avoid another trip to the medical timeout (read: abdominal emergency), his experience in five-set wars gives him an edge.
Why Riedi Might Win:
Riedi’s got the serve of a Swiss army knife and the momentum of a man who’s played zero Grand Slam rounds this year (i.e., fresh as a daisy in a meadow of wilted roses). Plus, Cerúndolo’s stomach issues make him a sitting target for a player who lives for long rallies.
Player Prop Bet Alert:
- Will Cerúndolo need a medical timeout? Odds aren’t listed, but the implied probability is… let’s say “high enough to justify a wager on Tums.”
- Riedi’s first-serve percentage: Bet he stays above 75% (his MartĂnez match) unless CerĂşndolo’s painkillers make him a human tornado.
Prediction:
Cerúndolo advances in four sets, but not before Riedi’s serve makes him question every digestive decision he’s ever made. The Over on total games (37.5-38.5) is a lock—this’ll be a grueling chess match where every point feels like a root canal.
Final Verdict:
Back Cerúndolo (-3.5 spread) if you trust a man who’s had to withdraw from Toronto for tummy troubles. If you’re feeling spicy, take Riedi +4.5 and a side of “hope Argentina’s medical team has a gastroenterologist on speed dial.”
“Tennis is 90% mental… and 10% not being too sick to grip the racket.” — Your Humble Handicapper, 2025 US Open Edition.
Created: Aug. 28, 2025, 2:11 p.m. GMT