Prop Bets: Francisco Cerundolo VS Matteo Arnaldi 2025-08-26

"Cerúndolo’s Second-Round Curse Meets Matteo Arnaldi’s ‘First Time Everything’ Tour Debut"

Francisco Cerúndolo, Argentina’s highest-ranked ATP star, will attempt to break his infamous second-round hex at the US Open. Facing qualifier Matteo Arnaldi (ranked 64th), Cerúndolo’s 31-18 season record and 10-5 hard-court edge should paper over his 2-3 US Open history. But let’s not forget: Cerúndolo’s last competitive match was a retirement due to abdominal injury at the Canadian Masters. Ouch.

The Odds Say:
- Head-to-Head (H2H): Cerúndolo is the consensus -150 favorite (implied probability: 60%), while Arnaldi sits at +200 (33.3%).
- Spreads: Cerúndolo is -1.5 (odds: ~1.85), meaning he must win by two sets to cover.
- Totals: The line is 38 games (even money in most books), suggesting a grueling five-setter… or a mercy rule.

Arnaldi, a 22-year-old qualifier with zero ATP tour wins, is essentially playing for pride and a paycheck. His only “advantage” is being a blank slate for Cerúndolo, who’s 0-3 in his previous first-round US Open matches. But let’s be real: This is tennis’s version of “rookie of the year vs. the guy who aced the qualifier exam by Googling ‘tennis rules.’”

Player Props?
None explicitly listed in the context, but if you had to bet on Cerúndolo’s aching abs holding up, the odds would be… against it.

Prediction:
Cerúndolo wins in four sets (6-3, 7-6, 4-6, 6-3), finally advancing past the second round. Why? Because even with a dodgy midsection, he’s got 10-5 hard-court form and Arnaldi’s resume fits on a LinkedIn placeholder.

Final Jeer: “Cerúndolo’s second-round curse is dead! Long live the man who finally beats a qualifier named ‘Matteo’—wait, wasn’t Matteo Arnaldi disqualified for wearing a hat in 2023? No? Never mind. Let’s just bet on the spread.”

Stream it on ESPN/Disney+ or suffer the agony of waiting for Reddit recaps. 🎾

Created: Aug. 26, 2025, 1:58 p.m. GMT