Prop Bets: Green Bay Packers VS Detroit Lions 2025-11-27

Turkey Day Showdown: Lions Roast Packers in Implied Probability Inferno

The Detroit Lions (-2.5, implied probability: ~52.4%) will host the Green Bay Packers on Thanksgiving, and the only thing cooking at Ford Field is the bookmakers’ spreads. With the Lions priced at a sharp -2.5-point favorite (decimal: 1.87), the market suggests Detroit’s offense will feast on Green Bay’s defense like a holiday buffet—no side dishes needed.

Key Stats & Props to Feast On:
- Total Points Over/Under: 49.0 (implied by BetMGM, BetUS, etc.), with most books offering balanced odds (1.91 for Over/Under). The Lions’ defense, which allows just 298 yards per game, vs. Jordan Love’s 248.3 passing yards per game? This could be a turkey of a low-scoring affair.
- Jahmyr Gibbs Anytime TD Prop: While not listed in the JSON, Bleacher Nation’s analysis hints Gibbs (27 carries, 20 targets in last game) is a touchdown machine. His 15.2% chance to score (implied by +550 odds in typical props) makes him a safer bet than your Uncle Jim’s “guaranteed” fantasy picks.
- Jordan Love’s 19.5 Pass Completions Prop: At -110, Love’s 72.8% completion rate vs. a porous Lions pass defense (26th in yards allowed) suggests “over” is the way to go. But let’s be real: Love’s 5.6 CPOE (completions per dropback) in competitive games? That’s math he can’t outrun.
- David Montgomery’s 9.5 Rushing Attempts Prop: At -110, Montgomery’s value shines as Gibbs rests post-heavy workload. The Packers’ run defense (4.8 YPC allowed) is a buffet for Detroit’s RB2.
- Jameson Williams’ 50.5 Receiving Yards Prop: At -110, Williams’ 18.1 YPR and injuries to Packers’ WRs (LaPorta, Raymond, TeSlaa) make him a prime beneficiary. His 33.3% air yards share? That’s not just a stat—it’s a warning.

Final Verdict: The Lions’ implied probability to win (60.6% via 1.67 decimal odds) suggests they’ll trot out the “Thanksgiving Turkey” trophy, while the Packers (-110 underdogs) will likely be the appetizer. Bet the Over on total completions for Love, but if you’re feeling spicy, take Gibbs to score a TD—just don’t blame me when he dances in the end zone like it’s your dinner he’s stealing.

“The only thing Green Bay fans should be thankful for? That the Lions aren’t playing the Bears this week.” 🦃🔥

Created: Nov. 26, 2025, 8:22 a.m. GMT