Prop Bets: Green Bay Packers VS Pittsburgh Steelers 2025-10-26
Packers vs. Steelers: A Tale of Aaron’s Revenge and Green Bay’s "Mystery Defense"
The Green Bay Packers (-3, implied probability: 50%) roll into Pittsburgh to face the Steelers (+3, 54.6% implied), armed with a two-game winning streak and a defense that somehow allowed 236 passing yards last week. The Steelers, fresh off a 33-31 heartbreaker to the Bengals, are underdogs but have a secret weapon: Aaron Rodgers, who’s somehow still throwing 14 TDs in six games (105.0 rating).
Key Stats & Props to Bet Your Grandma’s Wig On:
1. Rodgers’ Passing Yardage Prop (Over 219.5, -114): SportsLine’s AI thinks Rodgers will torch the Packers’ 19th-ranked pass defense (by EPA) for 257 yards. With Pittsburgh’s offense likely trailing, expect Rodgers to air it out like he’s still in Lambeau.
2. Josh Jacobs’ Rushing Prop: The Packers’ bellcow has 16+ carries in 5/6 games, including a 2-TD performance last week. He faces a Steelers defense ranked 21st in EPA/Rush, which gave up 108 yards to Chase Brown. Bet on Jacobs to grind out 100+ yards.
3. Romeo Doubs’ Receptions Prop: Green Bay’s WR1 has 5+ catches in every game and 17/25 targets for 185 yards over three weeks. With the Steelers’ 20th-ranked pass defense (by EPA) surrendering Ja’Marr Chase-level chaos, Doubs could hit 7+ catches.
Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline: Packers (-143, 57.1% implied) vs. Steelers (+113, 46.5% implied).
- Spread: Packers -2.5 (O/U 45.5, even money). The model says OVER (54% projected), and with Rodgers and Jordan Love both capable of airing it out, 46 points feels like a floor.
Final Prediction:
This game will be a shootout worthy of a Netflix special. Rodgers’ nostalgia tour against Green Bay could backfire—after all, the Packers’ defense allowed 23+ passing yards per game last week. Bet the OVER and Rodgers’ yardage prop, then laugh as the Steelers’ "bellcow" Josh Jacobs (yes, his team) tramples Green Bay’s run defense.
And if you lose, at least you’ll have the satisfaction of knowing the Steelers’ "defense" is just a fancy name for "hope and prayer." 🏈
Created: Oct. 26, 2025, 11:11 p.m. GMT