Prop Bets: Guilherme Pat VS Allen Frye Jr. 2025-12-13
Prediction: Guilherme Pat vs. Allen Frye Jr. – A One-Sided Nap Time?
The UFC’s 205-pound clash between Guilherme Pat (-200) and Allen Frye Jr. (+170) is shaping up to be a snoozefest, unless “snooze” is a new fighting technique. Let’s break it down with the precision of a judge’s scorecard:
The Numbers Game
- Moneyline Implied Probabilities:
- Pat: 1 / 1.56 ≈ 64.1% chance to win (basically a coin flip if your coin is rigged).
- Frye: 1 / 2.53 ≈ 39.5% chance to pull off a miracle (good luck, Allen).
- Spreads: Pat is favored by 7.5 rounds (yes, rounds—this isn’t a chess match). Frye needs to outlast Pat by 8 rounds to cover, which is like asking a toddler to beat an adult in a nap contest.
- Totals: The Over/Under is set at 1.5 rounds. If this fight goes 3 rounds, we’re all getting our money back.
Prop Bets to Watch
- Method of Victory: While not explicitly listed, the spread implies Pat might secure a decision so lopsided, the judges will need a calculator to justify the score.
- First Round Finish: The totals line suggests this could end in a yawn… or a TKO so fast, the crowd will still be finding their seats.
The Verdict
Pat, the -200 favorite, looks like a MMA version of a bulldozer heading into this bout. Frye, at +170, is the “dark horse” if “dark” means “statistically impossible.” Unless Frye invents a new fighting style called The Sleep Walk, Pat should cruise to victory.
Final Score Prediction: Pat via unanimous decision (30-27, 30-26, 30-26). Frye’s highlight reel? A single clip of him staring into the void.
Note: If this fight lasts longer than 1.5 rounds, the UFC should consider rebranding as a yoga studio. 🥲
Created: Dec. 13, 2025, 9:22 p.m. GMT