Prop Bets: Houston Rockets VS Phoenix Suns 2025-11-24
Houston Rockets vs. Phoenix Suns: A Tale of Two Teams (and a Few Missing Stars)
By The Sportswriter Who Still Thinks Kevin Durant Can’t Shoot
The Setup:
The Houston Rockets (10-4) roll into Phoenix as 6.5-point favorites, but they’re missing Kevin Durant (personal), Alperen Sengun (questionable), and Steven Adams (questionable). The Suns (11-6) are 9-1 at home this season and have a +11.2 net rating at home—third-best in the league. The over/under is 224.5, and the Suns have covered 9 of their last 10 home games.
The Math:
- Implied Probability: Rockets -112 (52.9% to win), Suns +108 (47.6%).
- Over/Under: The Suns have allowed just 107.6 PPG at home (3rd in NBA). Bet the Under 224.5—Durant’s absence might finally curb Houston’s offensive fire.
The Props:
- Alperen Sengun (-115) Over 9.5 Rebounds: Sengun averages 10 RPG but needs to compensate for Durant’s absence. Take the over—his shot-blocking skills are… questionable.
- Jabari Smith Jr. (-187) Over 1.5 3-Pointers: Smith is 39.5% from deep (5.8 attempts) but with Durant out, he’ll shoot more. Go with the over—his three-point range is about the size of a Texas gnat.
- Dillon Brooks (+200) to Score First Basket: Brooks is the Suns’ spark plug. Take him—his first basket will likely come via a fastbreak dunk after the Rockets’ offense implodes.
The Prediction:
The Suns will win this game by a point or two, covering the spread, because nothing says “confidence” like betting against a team missing its best player. Houston’s offensive rebounding edge (16.5 RPG) will vanish without Adams, and Phoenix’s interior defense (64% FG% allowed inside the arc) will smother Sengun.
Final Score: Phoenix 115, Houston 113.
Why? Because even if the Rockets win, they’ll do it by 1 point, and we all know how that ends for the bookmakers.
Disclaimer: This prediction is not financial advice. It’s just a guess written by someone who still thinks “net rating” is a type of yoga.
Created: Nov. 24, 2025, 11:38 p.m. GMT