Prop Bets: Houston Texans VS Los Angeles Rams 2025-09-07
Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Rams: A Defensive Slapfight with Matthew Stafford’s Back Against the Wall
The Houston Texans (0-0) and Los Angeles Rams (0-0) kick off their Week 1 clash on September 7, 2025, with the Rams favored by 3 points across all bookmakers (-140 moneyline, -3.0 spread). The Over/Under sits at a frigid 43.5 total points, with the Under getting love at most shops (implied probability: ~51.5%). Let’s break this down with the precision of a defensive coordinator side-eyeing a third-and-12 play call.
Key Player Props to Punt On
1. Matthew Stafford’s Passing Yards Under 241.5 (-110):
Stafford’s back injury and the Texans’ D (6.2 YPA allowed, 200.3 pass yards/G) make this a no-brainer. Last season, Stafford averaged just 235.1 yards per game. To hit this prop, he’d need to out-throw his own shadow—and somehow avoid touching the ground.
- Kenneth Walker III’s Catches Under 3.5 (-110):
The Rams’ WR corps is about as reliable as a Wi-Fi signal in a tunnel. Walker’s prop is a bet against the Rams’ passing game, which should be focused on keeping Stafford upright, not finding open receivers.
- Tight-End Touchdown at +190:
A longshot, but if you must chase a TD, go with the Under. The Texans’ D has stifled tight ends like a vegan at a barbecue—average of 0.8 TE TDs allowed per game last season.
Why the Under 43.5 Total is Your Friend
The Texans’ defense (10th in DVOA, per 2024 stats) and the Rams’ leaky offensive line (losing DT Aaron Donald to injury?) set the stage for a defensive stalemate. The Texans’ D ranked 5th in fewest points allowed (16.2/G) in 2024, while the Rams’ offense sputtered without a consistent running game. Throw in Stafford’s nagging back issues, and this game could be as exciting as a tax audit.
Final Verdict
Pick: Texans +3 and Under 43.5 (-110)
Prop Bet: Fade Stafford’s passing yards. Let the man keep his back intact and the Texans’ defense do the rest.
Remember, folks: If you bet the Over, you’re not just defying the odds—you’re defying physics. 🏈💸
Created: Sept. 7, 2025, 12:37 p.m. GMT