Prop Bets: James Madison Dukes VS Texas State Bobcats 2025-10-28

"James Madison Dukes: The 7-Point Spread’s New Best Friend (And Texas State’s Worst Nightmare)"

The James Madison Dukes (-7, -275 ML) are here to remind us why they’re the Sun Belt’s most entertaining party crashers. Fresh off a 63-27 demolition of Old Dominion—where QB Alonza Barnett III (1,252 yards passing, 9 TDs, 9 rushing TDs) single-handedly played Madden on Texas State’s defense—they’ll trot into San Marcos as 7-point favorites. Let’s be real: This isn’t a game. It’s a math test.

Why the Dukes?
- Defense that makes tackles look like TikTok dances: JMU allows just 15.6 PPG (1st in Sun Belt) and 237 YPG (1st). Senior safety Jacob Thomas (34 tackles, 2 INTs) is the conference’s answer to a spam filter for passes.
- Barnett’s dual-threat dominance: The kid’s got 9 passing TDs and 9 rushing TDs this season. He’s basically a two-man offense.

Texas State’s Desperate Bid for Relevance
The Bobcats (3-4) are 0-3 in conference play and have lost three straight by a combined 11 points. Their QB, redshirt freshman Brad Jackson (1,786 yards, 9 TDs), threw for 444 yards in a double-overtime loss to Marshall, but even that heroics couldn’t save them. RB Lincoln Pare (9 rushing TDs, Sun Belt-leading) and WR Beau Sparks (674 receiving yards, 6 TDs) might as well be playing Mario Kart while the Dukes have a cheat code.

Odds Breakdown
- Spread: JMU -7 (-110) at most books. The Dukes are 4-2 ATS as favorites this season.
- Over/Under: 55.5 points (-110). Expert models project 67 combined points, but recent Texas State games have been OT-fueled chaos (see: 40-37 loss to Marshall). The Over is a tempting “I’ll take that bet, Jerry.”

Player Props to Waste Your Money On
- Alonza Barnett III: Over 250 passing yards (+120) or Over 50 rushing yards (-150). He’s basically a two-sport athlete.
- Brad Jackson: Over 300 passing yards (-120). He’ll need a miracle, but hey, props are for suckers with hope.

Prediction
James Madison 34, Texas State 23. The Dukes cover the spread, but not because Texas State is bad—they’re just good at losing by 7. The Over 55.5 will hit because, well, it’s 2025 and college football has evolved into a points splurge.

Final Thought
If you’re betting on Texas State (+220 ML), you’re either a masochist or a fan of dramatic comebacks. Either way, bring a helmet. This isn’t a game—it’s a math problem with a kickoff.

P.S. If you’re gonna bet, use BetMGM’s promo code NYPDM1600 for a first-deposit match. Just don’t blame me when you’re celebrating a Dukes win with a bonus. The odds are math, not magic. 🏈

Created: Oct. 28, 2025, 9:20 p.m. GMT