Prop Bets: Kansas City Royals VS Boston Red Sox 2025-08-05
"The Boston Red Sox Are About to Make the Kansas City Royals Feel Like They’re Playing Against a Wall… Made of Strikeouts and Garrett Crochet’s Fastball"
The Boston Red Sox (-240 moneyline favorites) are gunning for a seventh straight win, and their ace, Garrett Crochet (2.23 ERA), is here to remind the Kansas City Royals that their "second in strikeouts per game" reputation is just a warm-up act for his 93rd-percentile strikeout dominance. Meanwhile, KC’s young starter, Ryan Bergert, is about to learn why you don’t bring a knife to a Crochet fight.
Key Stats to Know:
- Boston’s offense is scoring 5.3 runs per game over their last 15, while KC has the MLB’s second-worst offense (3.7 R/G).
- Crochet has a 12-3 record in 15 starts this season, with opponents averaging a paltry .182 BA against him.
- The Royals are 32-36 as underdogs this season, but don’t expect a rally here—they’ve scored 411 runs total (29th in MLB).
Odds Breakdown:
- Moneyline: Boston (-240) implies a 70.6% implied probability of victory. KC (+190) is a 34.5% shot.
- Total: 5.5 runs, with Over at 1.78 and Under at 1.96 (FanDuel). Given Crochet’s ERA and KC’s bats, Under is a no-brainer.
- Prop Bet Alert: The line on Crochet’s strikeouts vs. KC’s strikeouts is a sneaky gem. While Crochet’s K-rate is elite, KC’s 2.8 K/G is a feast for his fastball. Take Over 7.5 combined strikeouts at +150 (DraftKings).
Player Props to Watch:
- Jarren Duran (Red Sox): Over 1.5 total bases at -103 (Fanatics). He’s riding a 12-homer hot streak.
- Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals): Over 0.5 doubles at +650 (FanDuel). A long shot, but Witt’s 2.5 HR/G is a Hail Mary play.
- Pitcher Hits Allowed (Crochet): Over 3.5 at -160 (Fanatics). With KC’s offense, this is a “give me a break” line.
Final Prediction:
The Red Sox cruise to a 5-1 victory, with Crochet silencing KC’s bats while striking out 9 and allowing 3 hits. The Royals will manage 3 total hits, 0 extra-base hits, and 1 run—because even their second-ranked strikeout team can’t out-K a pitcher who makes Charlie Brown look like Babe Ruth.
Bet: Boston -1.5 (-240) and Under 5.5 (1.96). Prop: Over 7.5 strikeouts (-160).
Note: If Witt Jr. doubles, please send FanDuel a thank-you note. If not, send them a strongly worded email.
Created: Aug. 6, 2025, 12:15 a.m. GMT